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Wednesday , September 18 2019

Iranian bets always loss

Ahmed Al-Jarallah Editor-in-Chief, the Arab Times

THE objectives that Iran is striving to achieve by carrying out terrorist attacks through its agents – whether against commercial ships in UAE waters or Houthi’s drone attacks on Saudi Arabia’s East-West oil pipeline – have become so obvious.

Iran is seeking to lure Saudi Arabia and the UAE into a decisive storm operation for Tehran to exploit such move in order to prevent further division within its society which is languishing under the choking living crisis.

These are disappointing Tehran’s illusions because Saudi Arabia and the UAE are fully aware that direct military confrontation with Iran will revive the Persian element, which will unite the Iranians with their regime that has been looking for something to hang its failures and terrorism arguments for a long time.

In addition, Iran has no chance of survival if it engages in direct military conflict with the US; especially since all military analysts have informed that two American strikes are enough to destroy Iran’s military and nuclear infrastructure. Perhaps, it can turn Iran’s time back to the Stone Age.

Hence, if Khamenei and the entire leadership of the regime are openly declaring that there is no war with the US; they are definitely seeking to vent all their tensions after the militarization campaign which has been continuing for years.

In their perspective, this campaign cannot be achieved except through direct conflict with the neighbors, fueled by sectarian charge which the regime in Iran has been playing with for a long time.

Also, a thinker in Iran advises the regime to exercise absolute patience in dealing with the current crisis and indirectly settle for limited provocations such that it can absorb retaliation.

This is in hopes that it will assist in Trump’s loss in his bid for the second presidential term and then the US will return to the nuclear deal through the new administration.

What the regime in Iran fails to realize is that the people of America are interested in what the current administration is providing – job opportunities, better economy and strength of the president in fulfilling the promises he made during his electoral campaign.  Trump has achieved the objectives he set, so he intends to put pressure on Tehran as part of his election promises.

Based on this information, Saudi Arabia and the UAE will not give that huge service to Iran, while Trump’s administration will not tolerate terrorism practices for long.

Therefore, all that Iran can do in this current situation is to change all of its calculations. Iran should benefit from the expertise of Hassan Nasrallah in searching for a cave where its leaders will hide once the moment of truth strikes.

By Ahmed Al-Jarallah

Editor-in-Chief, the Arab Times

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