Afghanistan … ‘Talabani’ hornet’s nest
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HERE is the Taliban … It never changes with time, and is unable to adapt to a normal life. Hence, the dispute between some of its government ministers did not come as a surprise, as the new ruler – Abdul Ghani Baradar – and the representative of the Haqqani Network in the government – Anas Haqqani – come from a vengeful background that is not enough to be affiliated in the same ethnic group.
This dispute focuses particularly on “who achieved the victory over America” and whether it is the current ruling movement, or the undesirable partner, imposed by force of the “shura” (consultation) approach in the Taliban’s Halal rule.
Given that the interim government has turned into a minefield, this means that all the makeup that the movement has been trying to apply on its face will not change anything, especially with regard to human rights, particularly the rights of women. Also, there is the absence of a methodology with which it will deal with the anxious neighborhood, and the world that is cautious of the bills that the Taliban is forced to pay the allies who fought with them for 20 years.
With respect to the United States, which sought to establish a democratic rule but had failed, it brushed its hands off Afghanistan, and left its people to face their fate. Its concern was just to destroy the strategic weapons that could be used by the mountain fighters on their opponents at home or against some of the neighbors. The rest of the weapons that it left behind are necessary for the civil war.
Under such an atmosphere, it is very difficult, perhaps even impossible, to say that an acceptable state will soon see the light of day in Afghanistan. The one who comes from the caves of darkness and follows strict tribal customs cannot accept the participation of the others – irrespective of who they are – in the decision-making.
On the other hand, the drug lords have the upper hand in the local economy, and they will not accept being turned into a political scapegoat for providing the Taliban with credentials to the international community. They will undoubtedly have a great role in maintaining and protecting their empire.
This means that the wrangles that took place in the presidential palace is the spark that will cause the explosion of the volcano of internal disputes open to various interventions. This takes us back to the situation in Iran after February 1979 when Khomeini and those with him turned against the allies who helped him in the revolution. A bloodbath began against them, which led to the killing of tens of thousands of opponents, and this still continues in one way or another to this day.
This is what is expected to happen to Afghanistan in the near future, which will also remain isolated internationally and even regionally until it proves different from what it was in 1996 when the movement took over the country, and would stone and behead women in public, and practice oppression and the exclusion of well-informed members of its society.
Would the Taliban adapt the economy according to the new government’s vision? Or would it abandon that approach in order to break its isolation and enter into the international community club?
Since books are figured out from their titles, it has become clear from now that Afghanistan has entered the era of internal conflicts. This means that it is currently like an ember in the hands of anyone who seeks to cooperate with it, regionally and internationally, because it is tantamount to venturing into a hornet’s nest.
By Ahmed Al-Jarallah
Editor-in-Chief, the Arab Times
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