“… Do not quarrel with each other lest you fail or lose honor…” — Holy Quran 9:46.
From the several observations of our daily briefings on the unfortunate Gulf crisis, and by following up developments of this crisis, we could deduce our analysis or impression about this crisis — the kind that can only be realized by someone who is constantly observant of its every detail.
In reality, this crisis is related to conflict of influence in several areas, most importantly Egypt and Libya.
A day before the meeting in Egypt among the foreign ministers of the four countries that are blockading Qatar, Saudi Arabia’s foreign minister had stated that, “There is some advancements but not enough”.
At that time, news from Libya indicated about rapid advancement of Libya’s General Haftar’s forces in the city of Benghazi. Without much resistance, these forces had managed to take control of this city.
Those funding and supporting the conquering forces are well-known, so are those who are funding and supporting the conquered forces. Based on my analysis, the “fall” of Benghazi could just be the execution of one of the announced conditions among the parties involved in the conflict; although any deduction can be reached in this case based on the news and analysis made so far.
Two days later, an interesting statement was issued by the Turkish President Recep Erdogan, indicating that Turkey will close its military base if Qatar makes such request.
In my humble opinion, such a statement by President Erdogan is not random. Considering his political experience and him being a political veteran, he wouldn’t allow himself to take a position without making serious calculations and balancing such an issue.
As a quick analysis, the statement made by President Erdogan could be a summary of the undisclosed information coming from behind closed doors. This statement represents an indirect message, which can only be understood directly by the intended party.
We ought to link some events together in order to arrive at parts of a rational conclusion to the entire scenario, considering that politics sometimes resembles sports events in its complexity.
The significant factors in the crisis is the lack of transparency, and clear information being complicated by vague and ambiguous accusations that have retained confidential conditions and left the interpretative judgment and prediction to the common man. It seems more like differences between the royal houses rather than a crisis between nations.
Consensus mammoth efforts are being exerted by Kuwait led by His Highness the Amir Sheikh Sabah Al-Ahmad Al-Sabah. With his wisdom, experience, and distinguished reputation, he has obtained the confidence and trust of the parties involved in the crises, as well as international confidence to solve the crisis.
I believe if the crisis is not solved through His Highness the Amir, it will be very difficult for anyone else other than him to solve it.
Politics is like a sea with rough waves. Surprises are part of it; while inertia or a deadlock is excluded, we do not know exactly what will happen. In front of us is a crisis closed to the involved parties. However, I do not think there will be a winner or a loser. Victory might come in the taste of loss. The only win is to restore things as they were.
As for the crisis, the countries involved should handle it with logic and reason. They should take into account the international perspective and the interference of major countries. Germany will inspect the intelligence records of Qatar; and tomorrow we will not know who will inspect who in such crises if things are not solved reasonably. The crisis might continue its course where no one will be a winner!
By Yousef Awadh Al-Azmi