The BRICS group was established in 2009, with the aim of creating a new bloc independent of the US-led Western bloc. The founding countries were China, India, Russia and Brazil, before South Africa joined them next.
First, there is no real harmony between the BRICS countries. China and India have long had strong competition, economic problems, and border disputes. Also, what brings these countries together is their dissatisfaction with America’s policies, more than their common interests, such as their quest to eliminate poverty among their people, and their technical backwardness from the West, with a complete absence of any comprehensive political outlook, noting that India, South Africa, and Brazil enjoy democracy, while Russia and China are dominated by authoritarianism.
Moreover, what divides them is more than what unites them, which is why every previous statement of these countries’ meetings, and after every event and conference, and for nearly 15 years, came diplomatically and is open to various interpretations.
Three of the BRICS countries, India, Brazil, and South Africa, enjoy close relations with Western countries in general, and the United States in particular, and they are not prepared to escalate their relations, which are currently fruitful, with hostile positions towards the West, to please Russia and China.
The relationship between India and the United States is very deep, and the volume of trade exchange between them exceeded $150 billion, according to the latest published data.
America is India’s largest trading partner, and the most important market for its exports, and it was not surprising that America strongly supported the new trade line that will depart from it to Europe, passing through the Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Israel, and its implementation will constitute an obstacle to any extreme decisions that the other BRICS countries may decide to take against America in the future.
The United States is also the largest supplier of weapons to the Indian army, and has always stood with it in its wars with its arch-neighbor, Pakistan, with which China has always stood.
What makes India’s position, within BRICS, biased towards America is the large number of its citizens who work in the United States, estimated at five million, many of whom occupy very important and critical positions, and their presence constitutes a solid wall against any possibility of deterioration of the relationship between the two countries.
Observers also believe that the United States’ relationship with Brazil is no less important than its relationship with India, and even exceeds it in some areas, such as the volume of huge American investments in Brazilian industries.
As for the relationship of the American states with South Africa, it is truly special, for reasons that are too numerous to enumerate. It is sufficient that it is the only African country that has received visits from a remarkable number of American presidents.
The two sisterly countries, Saudi Arabia and the Emirates, may end up accepting the invitation to join the BRICS countries, but it is difficult to imagine that they will one day find themselves in the anti-American camp. Egypt, Argentina, Iran, and Ethiopia may become members of the bloc, but they represent a factor of weakness rather than a factor of strength, due to the weakness of their economies and the near weakness of their political structures.
I also do not personally believe that Kuwait has any interest, near or far, in being even semi-party to BRICS. The weakness of this new system, relatively speaking, lies in it, and its fate of becoming a formality is very likely, as its members disagree on most global issues, the last of which was condemnation.
The countries participating in the G20 summit, which President Putin did not dare to attend, due to Russia’s aggression against Ukraine and the occupation of parts of it, without the statement of condemnation including Russia’s name.
For all these reasons, it is impossible, in the short and medium term, for the BRICS group to become a competitor or equal in strength to the Western countries, led by America, due to the lack of political and economic harmony between them, let alone the other differences, and it cannot one day constitute a military force, and this makes it more fragile. While Western countries have NATO power, which constitutes a significant military force in addition to its financial, economic and political power.
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By Ahmad alsarraf
