AS THE banging of war drums starts in the city of Idlib in Syria, the concerned countries are preoccupying themselves with this intricate file to set up profit and loss accounts as a preliminary step towards preparing for the tug-of-war operation in that area.
This war seems to precede the final war in Syria which is about to end with major dramatic changes in Syria and the region, especially after Turkey entered by force the line of crisis, striving to reserve its place in the final settlement based on completely closing the Kurds-Syrian-Turkish file.
Since the start of the crisis, all countries have announced their stand to support the unified Syrian land and a central rule irrespective of the shape of the rule.
All parties called for withdrawal of non-Syrian forces, mainly the Revolutionary Guard and Iranian backed militias; whereas the Turkish forces, which entered due to a personal issue, are also meant to withdraw.
Therefore, when talk on how horrific the coming war is resonates everywhere, in particular the strong US response in case the regime in Damascus uses chemical weapon and based on all the positions declared from Syria, there will be no chemical attacks.
The objective of the US statements is to delay, as long as possible, the start of the battle while waiting for crystallization of the final solution which will conclude the shares of each party.
The current American pressure on the issue resembles that of Barack Obama’s administration, particularly the red lines which ended with limited strikes that did not help in anyway. Instead, they prolonged the war and delayed the process of dialogue and settlement.
The Turkish position is not different from that of the US, apart from the change of language, interests and objectives. Instead of ensuring the security of Israel through the US in the Southwest region, there are Kurdish forces hostile to Turkey which has been striving for decades to curtail, dissolve and prevent Turkish Kurds from separating themselves and establishing their Kurdish state.
Some details of the scene are different. The pro-Turkish national movement and calls to protect Sunnis in the city of Idlib are coming from the Muslim Brotherhood Group which supports every plan of Ankara in Syria even if it comes to cut a piece of its land to become the borderline, similar to what Israel did in Lebanon in 1982.
The Muslim Brotherhood Group justifies Turkish military and financial support for terrorist groups, such as ‘Sham Legion’, ‘Nur-ul-Deen Zanky Movement’ and even ‘Nusra Front’ which is listed internationally as a terrorist group.
The group justifies such support due to its conviction that any gains made by these gangs will be their moral strength in other arenas, specifically in Egypt and other Arab countries threatened by terrorism and ogled by the mother group.
Based on that, preparations are underway to attend the three-party summit on Sept 7 in Tehran between the leaders of Turkey, Russia and Iran to set up what could be boldly called as ‘Syrian Sykes Picot’ declaration.
This declaration will not be on the division of the country, as it rather points out the influence of each of the three forces. This is in addition to distribution of the cake for reconstruction of Syria.
However, all the events show that the Iranian side is not welcomed in the settlement by all major countries; in addition to the direct regional players – Turkey and Israel – which reject any Iranian existence in Syria, let alone about 90 percent of Syrians who do not want the Iranian forces to remain on their land.
Any exit from the unity of Syrian land or striving to divide it will clearly mean the start of cancerous division epidemic in the entire region. No one will be left out; even Turkey, which is currently claiming through the ‘Brotherhood’ media to be protecting Muslims, will be another victim in case the knife reaches the bone structure of the region.
By Ahmed Al-Jarallah
Editor-in-Chief, the Arab Times