IN 1990, the Iraqi regime of Saddam Hussein fell into the trap of assuming its ability to do whatever it wanted in the region due to its perceived strength; prompting it to commit the crime of invading Kuwait on Aug 2 that year.
At the time, Saddam did not heed the advice of various parties; while international delegations, such as famous Russian diplomat Yevgeny Primakov, frequented Baghdad. In Switzerland, the then US Secretary of State James Baker met Iraqi Foreign Affairs Minister Tareq Aziz in an attempt to reach a settlement to withdraw Iraqi troops from Kuwait without going into war.
Aziz did not accept George H.W. Bush’s letter to Saddam, so the war dubbed as ‘Desert Storm’ started. The war ended with the liberation of Kuwait and restriction of the Iraqi evil within its borders.
This war was followed by a series of international resolutions and economic sanctions leading to a war against Iraq in 2003, which ended with the fall of the regime that bragged about its chemical and nuclear programs. However, it was discovered later that such programs were just illusions.
This lesson from Iraq seems to elude the Mullah regime which has completely shut down all international mediation corridors by sabotaging the visit of Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe when it attacked two Japanese oil tankers near the Strait of Hormuz, in addition to Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s refusal to receive the letter of US President Donald Trump.
Iran also blocked mediations by some regional parties, even the French president’s high level advisor who is currently in Tehran in a bid to find common principles to ease tension between the US and Iran.
Observers of Iran’s demeanor will realize that these communications will not yield the desired result; because the regime is imagining it has the ability to defeat the US and its allies in the region, and that it can impose its conditions without concession. This is a repetition of the Iraqi scene.
Without a doubt, the shenanigans of slogans that Saddam Hussein used are currently being repeated by Tehran’s leaders; underlining them with the obscenity of grievances and hostility towards the people of Iran, international conspiracy and other rhetoric and illusions in the sick heads of the leaders.
The international delegations are now listening to the same rhymes on the lack of baby milk, medicine and food for Iranians; exactly the same symphony that Baghdad used in the 1990s. They will never accept their responsibilities for committing terrorism, interference in the affairs of neighboring countries and continuing to pose threat on maritime movement in international water passages.
The outcome of this clear conflict concerning the current crisis is that the sanction will continue to intensify. This is in addition to the ultimatum that the US gave to pave way for international mediation to prevent war which, at some point, will end; so war is inevitable.
This time, troops will not be mobilized. Instead, they will engage in war from Florida and Pasadena or other US bases.
The war strategy has changed significantly. Wasting such an opportunity means Iran is dragging itself into war. Once it is defeated, its leaders will repeat Saddam Hussein’s words: “We were waiting for soldiers, but they came with long range missiles.”
Iranians are threatening with ballistic missiles and increasing the rate of uranium enrichment with the hope of entering the nuclear club; but they have to realize that Israel possesses a huge nuclear arsenal. It cannot sustain the threats regardless of the wars it enters.
This also applies to North Korea which abandoned its nuclear military program to secure food for its people. Thus, the Mullah regime is being suicidal in thinking it can make a legend through the nuclear weapon.
The regime is intensifying the suffering of its people who will then stop persevering as starvation is the mother of every revolution and defeat.
By Ahmed Al-Jarallah
Editor-in-Chief, the Arab Times