The ongoing events in the Arab world, which began few years ago especially in Iraq and Syria, are massive operations aimed at preoccupying and exhausting the regimes and people of the region. Perhaps, in the end, there will be a demographic change and even changes on the map of the region. This is the art of politics, which manipulates the maps of countries based on the principle of power. Considering that this started years ago, very few have managed to end it and reach where they are today in terms of demographic changes, which occur openly in front of cameras, despite some ineffective opposition here and there.
The actual process of annexation or partition of lands is carried out without the original dwellers and owners of those lands having any say in the matter. Such a process cannot be described as random, as it happens through agreements among major powers and prior planning. The use of militias, especially foreign militias, has a significant effect in the entire process. This is why the utilization of a group like DAESH in this “new” arrangement comes in handy until the mission is completed. Hence you see the Syrian regime being handed a peace card to remain in power under the same previouslymentioned arrangements, considering that it no longer poses any threat or obstacle or even problem in front of any agreement which was signed or will be signed in the future. When it comes to the main regional players, all that is permissible is to air an opinion or observation, which can be either accepted or rejected. This is the mentality of the force at its best. Iran continues to market itself as the rentable gun due to its military importance.
However, in reality, it has failed in that aspect. If it were not for the Russian intervention in Syria, its ally Bashar Al-Assad would fall. Iran incorporates paid militias in its fight either on sectarian or any other basis. Some of its military elements have not even proven their competence and effectiveness in the war to save Al-Assad.
Previously, Turkey was not allowed to intervene even in a conflict that was just few meters away from its door in a town called Qabbani in Syria. However, even though it is now fully engaged in the war in Syria, its presence will not change anything. In fact, Turkey is careless about anything apart from achieving its strategic objectives related to Kurds. Apart from that, Turkey is willing to give and take to the extent that even contradicting itself will not be an issue. Saudi Arabia was suffering from stiff relations with the former “Democrats” administration of the United States of America.
However, it currently appears as though all that has changed and the new American President is willing to work with Saudi Arabia all the way. In addition, the ability of Saudi Arabia to accommodate international changes with a good political demeanor has been observed, considering the recent interesting meeting between the U.S. President Donald Trump and the Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman who received a pompous reception in the White House. This is a clear unequivocal message to the region regarding the vital role that Saudi Arabia will have in the “future”, which will be boosted by its successful political and military alliance in the Operation Desert Resolve and other important political achievements.
Regarding the Kurds, despite their smartness and brilliance in dealing with any changes that would affect their status quo or the demographic of their influence and land, they transform them into positive changes that solely serve their interests. However, the Kurdish decisionmakers might get deceived by how events are transpiring into making them think that change is easy. Nothing that will happen on the ground will be a coincidence, even when it comes to expansion of its influence and authority. Everything must go through the major powers—Washington, London, Paris and Moscow … hence, it is not as easy as it appears.
Finally, the region is taking various risky political and military turns. The situation is very sensitive, let alone unpredictable and unknown about the direction the major powers are heading towards, even though it appears easy for them to change directions. However, on the regional front, nothing can be done except receive the letter which will inform the relevant regimes about the new developments and actions that need to be taken. They do not have the luxury of even setting forth their observations. It is tough to be weak; it is the era of power.
By Yousef Awadh Al-Azmi