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“Politics is the conflict of power and not the conflict of intents”, German sociologists” – Max Weber (1864-1920).
Is it possible to have a unity agreement between the Arab countries? Is the timing of such an idea realistic? Could there be an agreement for two or three countries to unite and become a single country, which means erasing borders from the map and highlighting a country that is based on three unmarked countries?
There are fierce secessionist movements on the ground – one in the north in Kurdistan region of Iraq, and the other in the south in Yemen. The latter seems to have agreed to disagree in their movement. Even though that is the case, the movement still exists and there are people who are in support of it.
In my previous article, I had stated that the Kurdistan referendum would not have taken place without a green light from the major powers.
Given that the south of Yemen was an independent country before its unification with the north of Yemen took place in 1994, it is safe for me to say that, after the Kurdistan file is completed and their case is closed, the compass will turn to the south of Yemen.
This is due to several reasons; most important of all is the existence of a political force that has huge influence in the local politics in south of Yemen, as well as a coalition desire among some Arab countries that wish to see its separation from the north despite its ramification within the international opinion towards secession.
There is an almost-settled conviction in the hearts of the people of south that secession is the solution for the existing political and development strife. However, there are always misgivings with the north interfering in every aspect of the south — I do not mean interference of a country by another.
The interference that I am talking about is the kind which has no balanced internal political foothold. It could be demonstrated by swamping the south with leadership that is based on allegiances and installing people to lead without any regard for their qualifications.
Naturally, in such cases, people will lose confidence and trust in their leadership in the south. As usual, denominational politics destroys. Therefore, the people of the south will end up feeling estranged in their own country and subjected to the unwise will of others.
Therefore, if the Kurdish political movement, which has global support, succeeds in separating Kurdistan from Iraq and establishing an independent state, the course of the train might reach Aden. A secession referendum could be used there to determine the destiny of the south, even though it is not a necessary tool, considering that it can be replaced by measures that would lead to separation, banking on its previous independent status. Obstacles might exist in Yemen, similar to the ones that keep unfolding in Erbil.
However, there is no doubt that the element of success in the south of Yemen is much greater and enjoys much more support than Arbil did, especially in terms of its porous coastline and sharing of border with countries which might protest. Nevertheless, the process of separation will proceed easily and successfully.
We might wake up to the formation of two new countries. However, we should not forget that — “What cannot be completely attained should not be completely abandoned.”
By Yousef Awadh Al-Azmi