‘Black Horse’ analysts … their horses will return to their stables
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WITH each announcement of the election date, the market for analysts flourishes as they earn their livelihood from the table of probabilities. However, it all comes at a price.
Whoever pays more becomes the “black horse” (favorites) and will box the highest number of votes. This process is known for its price, as it exceeds five thousand dinars.
As for the candidate who pays less, he becomes a “strong competitor”. The one who is “in the winning circle” does not exceed his probability to win at a price of two thousand dinars.
When you observe the analysis of these elections, you almost believe that these candidates will come to the parliament on a bulldozer of reform and major projects, and that they perhaps will have the confidence to raise the ceiling of their slogans according to the words of the analysts who paid them to hype their probability to win. However, the truth on the ground is different.
There are candidates who rarely rely on analysts’ predictions, and do not even enter that bazaar and get the highest percentage of votes.
We have seen in the past election cycles how analysts hyped more than 80 candidates by describing them as favorites, but after tallying the votes, only one or two of them succeeded, while the hopes of the rest were frustrated.
When analysts use some terms, you imagine that the elections are taking place in the stables as if they are horse and camel races. These epithets tempt some candidates, as if someone sees that it is in their interest to use all these terms, and so he buys a whole block from the analyst to become a “black horse” this time , and in the other a “strong competitor,” and in the third he is “in the circle of competition”.
As for the one who pays more, his victory becomes certain by analysis. This may make him a strong candidate for the presidency of the National Assembly, or one of the important parliamentary committees. However, when the boxes are opened, he realizes that he won only his vote, and even his wife didn’t vote for him.
In fact, this tradition, which flourishes in every election season, is imported from countries that operate through referendums or opinion polls conducted by their competing parties according to scientific rules, and do not have fantasies and illusions as is the case with us since the majority of analysts lack the simplest rules of impartiality and objectivity.
In addition, our constituencies and the nature of the social components almost guide us to the new candidates without effort. Therefore, more than 90 percent of the candidates do not have any programs, and lack simple alphabets of legislation.
Therefore, we will not be surprised if we hear in the coming days about the “blue horse”, “the lightning”, “the spotted”, or “the super competitor”, or those “in the circle of competition that is guaranteed to win”, and other terms that need to be analyzed.
These analysts are also the ones who, immediately after the announcement of the election results, start marketing the idea of dissolving the parliaments and holding early elections.
These analysts do this in order for them to stay relevant, especially if the race is suspended for a year or more, or if the parliament has completed its entire legislative term, then the stables of the analysts are closed, and the horses return to their natural color.
Dear candidates, if you do not have any realistic and rational electoral programs and you expect to implement at least 20 percent of them, do not let the analysts mislead you.
The Kuwaiti voters, after all the crises they have been through due to poor parliamentary performance, are more sophisticated now in choosing, and are aware of who represents them and who does not.
By Ahmed Al-Jarallah
Editor-in-Chief, the Arab Times
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