A traditional Kuwaiti proverb states: “When errors multiply, one becomes incapacitated, stagnant, and burdened by one’s own blunders.” This saying accurately captures the present reality of Iran, as its ruling regime has made the state powerless —unable to even defend itself, after overextending its influence far beyond its borders.
To drive a wedge between peoples in the region, Tehran consistently sought to leverage secondary contradictions. A clear illustration is its exploitation of the Lebanese crisis following the 1982 Israeli invasion, when it used a certain segment of the population to secure a foothold on the Mediterranean coast. In doing so, it destabilized Lebanese society and entrenched deep sectarian and denominational divisions.
Building on that success, the regime exported this model to the broader Arab world, most notably to Syria, post-2003 Iraq, and later to Yemen. However, its attempts to replicate this approach in the Gulf were thwarted. Thanks to the prudent leadership of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries and the strong national identity of their peoples -- who firmly rejected sectarian strife and violence- the Iranian regime suffered defeats in all of these endeavors.
Nevertheless, Tehran continues to manipulate regional conditions in a bid to bolster its leverage at the negotiating table. As previously noted, Iran today is in a state of ‘rubdhah’ — a term in classical Arabic denoting a man who is incapacitated and confined to one place. In this sense, the country resembles a sick man looking for a cure for his problems beyond his own borders, hoping to alter reality and achieve his goals.
This is after suffering painful blows from the United States and attempting to manipulate the global economy by threatening to close the Strait of Hormuz and mobilizing proxies in Yemen to shut down the Bab al-Mandab Strait. However, Iran has once again found itself in a bind, having alienated its closest allies—China and Russia—that adopted stances distinct from its own. This stems from crushing fiscal pressures straining their internal affairs. Beijing is facing severe petroleum deficits, while Moscow—entangled in its conflict with Kyiv—urgently pursues a diplomatic turn, potentially forged through dialogue with Washington, as the United States searches for its own resolution to this extraordinary impasse. On the other hand, Iran is no longer the disruptive regional and global force that once used terrorism to blackmail other nations.
Today, it is too weak to even defend itself. Consequently, it is attempting to open channels with Arab Gulf states in hopes of restoring past relations. Yet, the path forward has been blocked since the Revolutionary Guard fired the first missile at these nations. Trust has been lost, and it will likely take half a century to rebuild confidence between Tehran and the regional capitals. Iran is currently suffering from a multifaceted crisis, from which there is no escape without first repairing the devastation wrought by the current regime— whose terrorist conduct has persisted for 47 years- and then working diligently to extricate the state from the crushing financial liabilities owed to the nations it attacked, a debt that will take decades to settle. Therefore, the Iranian regime finds itself pushed into a corner. It has no remaining hope other than to submit to the Gulf states and Iraq, open the Strait of Hormuz, and stop instigating peripheral conflicts—such as the one involving Saudi Arabia—through its Houthi proxy. Otherwise, it will enter the terminal in a downward spiral.
