The Arab world changed drastically within a century. Countries that were once considered strong, stable, and enjoying development and freedom of expression have become near-failure states. Examples include Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Libya and Yemen. If we broaden our scope, the term ‘failed state’ can be accurately applied to some Middle Eastern countries, including Iran. If we scrutinize history, Ibn Khaldun’s ‘Muqaddimah’, written about 700 years ago, remains the most precise sociological work in terms of its description of the rise and fall of states. In his ‘Muqaddimah’, Ibn Khaldun outlined several characteristics of failed states, or those on the verge of collapse.
This is happening today in some Arab and Middle Eastern countries. Ibn Khaldun identified three main reasons for state collapse that apply to the contemporary Arab and Middle Eastern situation. He wrote: “When states are on the verge of collapse, soothsayers and beggars, hypocrites and pretenders, scribes and orators, discordant singers, panegyric poets and drummers, pseudo-scholars and satirists, and opportunists abound.” He added: “Masks fall and what should not be mixed becomes mixed. Appreciation is lost, management falters, meanings and words become perplexing, truth is mixed with falsehood and jihad with murder, terror prevails, people seek refuge in sectarianism, wonders appear, rumors spread, friends become enemies and enemies become friends.
“The voice of falsehood rises and the voice of truth fades, suspicious faces emerge and comforting faces disappear, dreams become scarce, hope dies, the feeling of alienation intensifies, facial features become blurred, tribal affiliation becomes stronger, and loyalty to one’s homeland becomes madness. “The voice of the wise is lost in the clamor of orators, the pretense of patriotism, and the concepts of nationalism, patriotism and creed, and the fundamentals of religion. Members of the same household hurl accusations of treachery and betrayal at one another. Rumors of a mass exodus circulate. Conspiracies are hatched, advice abounds, initiatives are proposed, and everyone is on high alert and waiting. Citizens become potential migrants and the homeland becomes a transit point.
A luggage becomes suitcases, homes become memories and memories become stories. To the reasons that Ibn Khaldun mentioned, I would like to add the absence of institutions and the presence of armed militias, more powerful than the government, as the case in Lebanon with Hezbollah and Yemen with the Houthi group. The crucial questions are: What brought these countries closer to failure? What is the recipe for their success?
---
How did the Mercedes driver get rid of the policeman?
An elderly man was driving his new Mercedes at 160 kilometers per hour. When he looked at his rear view mirror, he saw a police car following him, so he increased his speed to 200, then 250 kilometers per hour. Suddenly, the Mercedes driver said to himself, “I am too old for this nonsense.” He slowed down and pulled over to the side of the road, waiting for the police car to approach. The traffic policeman approached him, looked at his watch, and said, “Sir, my shift ends in 10 minutes, and it’s Friday. I am leaving for the weekend If you give me a reason for your speeding that I have not heard before, I will let you go.” The man looked at the policeman seriously and replied, “Years ago, my wife left me and ran away with a policeman boyfriend. When I saw you following me, I thought you wanted to bring her back.” The policeman returned to his car, saying, “Have a good day, sir.”
---
How did the man who made Pakistan a nuclear power ended up executed?
In 1973, Zulfikar Ali Bhutto was Prime Minister of Pakistan. He was in the prime of his youth and had charisma that made him a national hero. Bhutto dreamed of building a nuclear program and giving his country an atomic bomb after its defeat in the war with Bangladesh. He defied the United States and the Soviet Union, and wanted to lead the Third World. Boldly, Bhutto secretly established the nuclear program of Pakistan, while promising social justice to his people. For a while, the dream seemed within reach, but the Army watched anxiously as protesters filled the streets. Bhutto needed a loyal general, so he bypassed the older officers and chose Ziaul- Haq, a quiet man who refused to shake his hand when they met. On July 5, 1977, tanks surrounded Bhutto’s house. He was arrested, put to trial, and hanged two years later. This was the end of the man who built the nuclear program of Pakistan and helped his country acquire nuclear power.
