Humanity has never known an empire that did not eventually meet its end. The strange thing is that the beginnings of most empires, their rise to power, and their subsequent collapse are almost the same. The sociologist Ibn Khaldun recognized this pattern, summarizing the rise and fall of empires in four stages:
First is the emergence when a simple, poor, but cohesive group conquers a more civilized group, seizes power, builds a state, and experiences flourishing civilization, urban development, and increased wealth. This is followed by a stage of decadence, when seriousness weakens, sons and grandsons compete for power, and corruption, unemployment, and laziness spread.
First is the emergence when a simple, poor, but cohesive group conquers a more civilized group, seizes power, builds a state, and experiences flourishing civilization, urban development, and increased wealth. This is followed by a stage of decadence, when seriousness weakens, sons and grandsons compete for power, and corruption, unemployment, and laziness spread.
The next stage witnesses collapse, when the state becomes incapable of defending itself. At that point, a new group with stronger solidarity rises and overthrows it, and the cycle begins anew. Others, after Ibn Khaldun, added one more stage. What was the fate of the various empires over the past two thousand years? The Roman Empire reached its geographical zenith under Emperor Trajan, specifically in 117 AD, the year of his death. It was the greatest and unmatched empire in the world. The end began when it decided to defend all its conquered territories at once with its armies. This excessive expansion ultimately contributed to the collapse of the Roman Empire.
Next came the Ottoman Empire, which dominated many countries for 600 years. The Ottoman Empire faced a similar predicament, as its armies fought on three fronts simultaneously, eventually leading to its bankruptcy. Then came the British Empire, which controlled 24 percent of the globe at its peak and possessed the most powerful navy. The pound sterling was the world’s reserve currency, and London was the center of trade, finance, and law. However, its expansion drained its resources and led to its demise.
Then came the Soviet Union, which had passed the fourth stage by 1985, with the Soviet army excessively deployed across various countries. Instead of halting, reducing military funding, and withdrawing from the arms race, the Soviet Union continued on the same path, while Gaza and Afghanistan were also targeted. The cost was catastrophic, ultimately leading to the end of the empire.
Now that the four stages are clear, we see that America, in the opinion of many analysts, has been exhausted by wars over the past twenty years, at an unprecedented cost. Every historian who has studied the collapse of empires agrees that the fifth stage is neither a battle nor an invasion, nor an event that can be precisely predicted. It is much more subtle. It is the morning of the day when the leadership of that empire wakes up to find that its money has evaporated, its ammunition has run out, and its debts have ballooned.
Rome did not fall in a single day, the Ottomans did not collapse in a single battle, Britain did not lose its empire in a single war, and the Soviet Union did not end with a single defeat. They all reached the fifth stage in the same way - gradually, and then suddenly, the collapse occurred. The reason was excessive colonial expansion. This phase was described by historian Professor Paul Kennedy of Yale University in his 1987 book, The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers. The book served as a warning to America that this fifth phase had never failed to bring down empires over the course of 2,000 years. Perhaps the quiet American withdrawal from some of its bases in the Arabian Gulf region is a way to delay or avert the collapse that many have predicted.
By Ahmad alsarraf
email: [email protected]
email: [email protected]
