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The inevitable collapse of the Revolutionary Guard

publish time

12/09/2026

publish time

12/09/2026

The inevitable collapse of the Revolutionary Guard
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When we assert that the danger posed by the current Iranian regime is far greater than many would realize, we are not pointing to a temporary phenomenon, as the regime is anchored on three pillars as follows: The regime is an authoritarian governance model that systematically suppresses internal dissent. It propagates a sectarian ideology presented as a universal doctrine and establishes subordinate proxy networks deployed at will to advance state ambitions. Since weakening any foundation endangers the entire structure, the leadership systematically cultivated a web of regional proxies immediately after overthrowing the Shah.

The gravity of this threat was fully evident when Tehran initiated the latest advancements in its nuclear and missile capabilities. The expansion of the regime’s nuclear and missile programs revealed the real severity of the threat. Combining these two capabilities—a routine strategy for nuclear-armed states—makes it evident that the regime intends to enforce its ideological agenda through dominance, aiming first at neighboring nations and then extending its reach globally. Yet, achieving this is virtually impossible, as global history offers stern warnings through catastrophic nuclear disasters and bombings, from Hiroshima to Chornobyl.

Therefore, US President Donald Trump was fully aware, like many others, that a regime motivated by a terrorist political ideology should not be allowed to possess such weapons. He declared this at the recent Republican National Convention, stating, “The United States will not allow Iran to obtain a nuclear weapon”—a stance he has maintained since withdrawing from the nuclear deal in 2018. This parallels the case of the Nazi regime, which cost the world over 70 million lives and devastated numerous nations in the pursuit of imposing Hitler’s vision— a vision fundamentally at odds with human truth. The Iranian Constitution contains articles detailing the concept of ‘exporting the revolution’ as envisioned by Khomeini and the ruling clique of that era. These articles remained unchanged for decades, forming the foundation on which the regime was built.

This shows the regime's steadfast adherence to its original stance over the past 47 years, confirming that current events are merely a political ruse to buy time. To understand this context, one must look back to the period before the 1979 revolution. At that time, public demands centered on achieving social justice, directing state revenue toward the people, boosting national industries, and attaining self-sufficiency.

While the Ayatollahs capitalized on this wave of sentiment, their true objectives lay far beyond these goals—explaining the prevalence of ideological slogans in the current conflict. Had the ‘social justice’ promised by Khomeini materialized, Iran would have become the preeminent power in the region — economically, academically and socially. Instead, tens of billions were squandered on establishing a sectarian military system to pursue objectives that remain unattainable, given the country’s geographic, ethnic, religious and economic realities. Consequently, Iran—the state itself, not just the regime—now stands at a critical crossroads.

Incumbent President Masoud Pezeshkian candidly acknowledged this on several occasions in recent weeks, warning that the persistence of the status quo threatens to undermine society and plunge the country into chaos. Just the other day, he stated, “Iran has been subjected to severe and sweeping sanctions in recent years. This pressure has reached a critical and dangerous stage in recent months.” On this basis, when it mobilized its Houthi proxies in Yemen, the regime attempted to kill two birds with one stone: first, to destabilize the Gulf region by targeting the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, and second, to divert attention from its debacle in Lebanon, as well as its internal troubles in Iran. Yet, as always, these efforts of the Revolutionary Guard would end in a resounding failure.