The Gulf, the American security umbrella and Iran

President Donald Trump’s statements have shifted between threats of overwhelming force, hints of negotiations, declarations of success and renewed escalation. This reveals the absence of a clear and consistent political strategy for what follows the use of force. The result is what I recently described as “soft escalation”: intermittent strikes and threats that remain below the threshold of full-scale war, yet deny the region stability and keep Gulf states under prolonged security and economic pressure. The answer is neither to wait for Washington to deliver a decisive military outcome nor to rely on temporary bilateral understandings between individual Gulf states and Tehran. It must begin with a unified Gulf position and a gradual effort to establish a binding regional security framework involving both the Gulf states and Iran, backed by credible international guarantees.

Such a framework should protect maritime navigation, prohibit attacks on regional states, establish monitoring and verification mechanisms, and ensure that Gulf territory is not used for offensive operations that endanger the host country without an explicit sovereign decision. The aim is not to abandon the security partnership with the United States, but to transform it from a relationship of dependency into one based on consultation, consent and shared decision-making.

The American security umbrella has provided intelligence, early warning and air defence, but it has not prevented Gulf states from becoming targets. Today, the Gulf remains more a collection of neighbouring states than a cohesive political and security bloc capable of acting with a shared strategic purpose and placing the broader Gulf interest above its internal differences.