The Gulf could pay the price

09/07/2026

The most important question for the Gulf is how long this U.S.-Iran crisis will last, and how much of its cost Gulf states will have to absorb while trying to stay out of it. The region appears to be heading toward a cycle of controlled escalation: limited strikes, calibrated responses, mediation, and a return to tension. For Gulf states, this is a dangerous middle ground. They do not decide when the crisis begins or ends, but they will live with many of its consequences.

The risk is not only missiles or drones. It is time. A prolonged crisis can steadily raise the cost of shipping, insurance, energy flows, investment decisions, market confidence, and other pressures GCC policymakers understand but rarely discuss openly. So far, despite differences among Gulf states, most have acted pragmatically: avoiding direct entanglement, resisting escalation, and focusing on containing the damage.

That may not satisfy those who believe the answer lies in maximum pressure or even regime change, but it reflects a basic strategic reality: the Gulf has more to lose from a widening conflict than from a careful effort to limit it. Iran also understands that pressure on Gulf waters and regional trade routes does not affect Washington alone. It unsettles Europe, China, India, and other economies with a stake in energy security and maritime stability. The real test for Gulf states now is managing risk, lowering the cost of escalation, narrowing internal differences where possible, and preventing their territory, waters, and economies from becoming arenas for other people’s conflicts.

By Abdulaziz Al-Anjeri