Fears of the possible closure of the Strait of Hormuz are not new. Since the Carter Doctrine was announced on Jan 23, 1980, and about four months later, Al-Seyassah daily published a report posing the question: Would the Strait of Hormuz closure mean the start of World War III?
The general context of this investigative-analysis report was based on several factors, most importantly the fact that Kuwait has no other outlet for exporting its oil, which is the primary source of national income, except through this waterway.
The question was necessary at the time, prompting action to find alternatives to this vital artery. This was during the Iran-Iraq War, and the ‘Tanker War’ was just beginning (similar to what is happening today).
Therefore, it was essential to propose ideas that were in line with the strategic direction of the country, both economically and financially. This task is supposed to be the mission of experts and senior officials in this sensitive sector, in addition to the ministers of Oil and Finance, who are in charge of developing sustainable strategies and outlining a vision for the future. Oil-producing countries have had contingency plans in place for years, and such plans are being developed from time to time. Saudi Arabia planned the Trans-Arabian Pipeline (Tapline) in 1946, which opened in 1950, as an alternative to the Strait of Hormuz. Although this pipeline ceased operation after the 1967 War, it was a vision for the future. In recent decades, Saudi Arabia constructed the East-West pipeline to the Red Sea.
The United Arab Emirates (UAE) built the Habshan-Fujairah pipeline, so it was not severely affected when the Strait of Hormuz was closed in the last few months. The risks associated with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz have been known for some time, and preparing for them must be a priority for the relevant officials. It is not enough to simply maintain the status quo as long as the situation is stable. Executive officials consistently reiterate reassuring statements, urging citizens not to worry and emphasizing that everything is under control.
These officials have the authority to anticipate future challenges, learn from their counterparts in other oilproducing countries, and review their plans. Moreover, they must utilize all available resources to ensure sustainability and excellence. Reports indicate that Kuwait has been unable to export sufficient quantities of oil over the past six months, which affected the overall situation of the country.
In the recent crisis, Iran appeared to be the sole controller of the main energy artery of the world -- the Straight of Hormuz. From the beginning of the crisis, countries started to activate alternative plans, while Kuwait fell into the trap of lacking an alternative to the Strait of Hormuz despite relying on oil for 90 percent of its revenues.
Today, the entire world is searching for alternatives to oil, such as solar energy, nuclear power and others. Countries are striving to build alternative oil pipelines. Kuwait has been facing this problem for more than five decades and it persists till today. If we had alternatives, at least by establishing strategic oil storage facilities located in countries near those that import Kuwaiti oil, the country would have saved a lot of money. Relying on a single source of income is a major obstacle to the future of nations, because any crisis causes enormous losses, as it happened in the Republic of Nauru, which used to depend entirely on its phosphate revenues. When phosphate prices collapsed in the early 1990s, Nauru fell into a major crisis, from which it still suffers today.
If we have readily available alternatives to the Strait of Hormuz, the situation would have been very different, and we would not have the need to borrow from the Future Generations Fund or other sources. Kuwaiti and foreign experts should have had comprehensive contingency plans in place, given the privileges, luxuries, bonuses and exorbitant salaries they receive. Back to what Al-Seyassah daily published on April 20, 1980, the reader realized that someone had been sounding the alarm a long time ago.
However, it seems that no one paid attention at the time, and officials did not take the warning seriously. The experts did not study the experience of other concerned countries.
So, we need an answer to this question: Where is the experts’ vision for the future in this regard? According to recent reports, experts believe that Kuwait has oil reserves exceeding one hundred billion barrels, in addition to gas. The world will still need oil and gas for about a hundred years more. So, is it not worth creating alternatives to the Strait of Hormuz in order to avoid risks?
