WITH the electronic signing of the memorandum of understanding between the United States and Iran, a new phase begins during which the intentions of the Tehran regime will be put to the test. We will see whether Iran is serious about deescalation or whether it will use the two-month grace period to regroup and continue the stalling tactics it has followed for 47 years, not just recently. Undoubtedly, many current calculations may prove either correct or incorrect.
Any delay will not serve Iran’s interests. The reality is that Tehran must awaken from its expansionist aspirations and abandon the slogan of “exporting the revolution.” Iran should say thanks to the United States, and perhaps Israel, for ending its nuclear program, which brought it nothing but international isolation and placed a heavy burden on its people for five decades, during which significant resources were directed towards the nuclear program. Ultimately, the program proved that it did not change the regional or international equations.
The current Iranian regime, in its weakened state, has an opportunity to abandon its terrorist past and begin a new path based on a clear equation that prioritizes meeting the people’s demands above any whimsical ambitions. These ambitions are reflected in expansionist tendencies that stem from the delusions of those who govern a great nation with a rich history and a people seeking freedom, hard work, and creativity. Mindsets still living in medieval caves hold sway over this nation, which comprises five different ethnic groups, each with its own distinct aspirations.
This is a sensitive issue that the regime has failed to consider. For decades, the Iranian regime has relentlessly threatened its neighbors, which has led to a deep erosion of trust in it. Restoring Iran’s relations with its neighbors will take decades, and may require a radical change in the Iranian regime. Iran has been defeated, no matter how much it denies this fact.
The cost of the recent war and the international isolation it has faced since 1979 are far greater than what Iran’s leaders anticipated. Therefore, abandoning the nuclear program opens a window of hope for the people. Iran’s withdrawal from supporting regional proxies would significantly reduce the hostility towards it and help restore its standing in the world as an economically powerful nation. After 60 days, as stipulated in the memorandum of understanding, the situation will not be the same as it was before the June 2015 war, nor even as it was at the height of Iranian tyranny in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen.
These militias, formed under the Iranian regime to infl uence decision-making in these countries, are nearing their end. The dream of exporting the revolution on sectarian and religious grounds will soon become a thing of the past. Any rational observer understands this significant shift. The Iranian regime must seize the available opportunities to lift its people out of poverty and starvation.
Otherwise, cracks within the regime’s structure will deepen, especially given that some of its members have already declared the agreement as a betrayal of Iran. The hardliners within the Iranian regime believe that Iran must continue its confrontation until the “awaited Mahdi” appears. The more pragmatic faction believes the agreement provides the regime with time to regroup and alleviate public discontent. This means each faction views matters through the lens of its own interests and an extreme ideology, no matter if the view is right or wrong. Tehran must balance its own interests with slogans that have cost it heavily in terms of money and resources and have generated widespread hostility.
Iran did not liberate Palestine; rather, it brought occupation to Lebanon, deepened divisions among the Iraqi people, and undermined national unity in Yemen. Ultimately, the Iranian regime has been defeated. Nevertheless, Iran is likely to continue its usual tactic of covering every defeat under the guise of divine victory
