Nobody wants war in the region. No one wants to continue the tension that has been emerging every two or three years since 1979. Consequently, any step toward stability and peace is a Gulf demand, both officially and publicly. Gulf officials welcome any progress in that direction. The signing of the memorandum of understanding between the United States and the Iranian regime was welcomed as a glimmer of hope for regional stability.
However, as they say, the devil is in the details. Since the memorandum is not an agreement, but rather a general framework upon which nothing can be built, we must examine the structure of the Iranian delegation in Switzerland and their conduct during the discussions with the American delegation. This will reveal the intentions of Tehran in the negotiations.
In this sense, the background of the Iranian delegation members and what they represent in the regime matter. The delegation has 45 members and each is headed by an authoritative figure within the system. It reveals the fundamental goal of Iran -- to take without giving. Tehran bases its strategy on the lessons learned in 2015. However, all these still depend on the actions of the Iranian regime, demanded by the United States, the international community and the Gulf states. Neither the US nor the regional powers desire war for its own sake.
Everyone is aware that no one gains from such a conflict, particularly the Iranian people, who have been enduring hardships as a result of the actions of the regime. As a result, the new American tenet is: “Acquire what can revitalize your people through peace, because war is not in your interest.” On the contrary, the image of victory that the regime leaders are trying to project is about their survival and continuous control over the government and national resources. Nothing else matters. We previously detailed how the regime reacted to public uprisings throughout its 47 years of rule.
Therefore, the negotiations witnessed by the whole world two days ago were, in substance, merely a formality for the regime, while the Americans who want to escape internal and international pressures and prevent the return to war because of its enormous economic cost, are placing their bets on them.
This political realism is not in the minds of the Iranians, meaning, they will pursue their course until the end, but it will be very costly for them. Thus, when US President Donald Trump threatens Tehran against reverting to its past behavior, he understands that the game is nearing its end. When he tells them explicitly to cut off funding to their proxies, especially in Lebanon, he knows well that Hezbollah is the last card Iran uses to pressure several Arab states allied with the United States.
The session held two days ago yielded meager results, as each member of the Iranian team sought to secure personal gains and maintain control over the levers of power within the regime, fearing internal political dismantling. Basically, we will witness many more rounds of negotiations if the American side does not make a decisive move.
Given President Trump’s personality, the Iranian regime may not have significant opportunities. Inflation has reached about 77 percent, over 2.5 million people have lost their livelihoods, and the poverty rate has exceeded 40 percent. So, this beleaguered nation has no option but to capitulate, as it cannot afford to engage in stalling tactics and war awaits it. In any event, the statements made by US Vice President JD Vance after the initial round of talks were comforting for the Iranian and American populations, as well as the regional nations. This can be expanded, if everything goes according to plan.
