The unfolding events indicate that the United States of America is not in a hurry to resolve the conflict with Iran through military approach, as long as it has more painful tools for the Tehran regime, such as tough, suffocating and seemingly insurmountable economic sanctions. The calculations surrounding the upcoming American midterm elections in November played a crucial role in changing the landscape.
The United States shifted from military warfare, bombing and destruction to inciting public unrest against the Iranian regime. Voices demanding an end to the daily suffering of the people have started to rise, most notably from former President Mohammad Khatami and current President Masoud Pezeshkian.
Undoubtedly, this is in favor of America. This situation is not new, as the Iranian people have endured sanctions for 47 years. However, there have been loopholes through which aid has been channeled to alleviate the severity of living conditions.
Furthermore, Iranian proxies have played a role in distracting the international community from the internal situation. Today, the situation changed with the fall of the former Syrian regime, the weakening and containment of Hezbollah in Lebanon, and the Iraqi government regaining control over weapons. Even the Houthi group has become more isolated than before, both in terms of public support and regional influence. Consequently, the electoral landscape in the United States changed after being influenced by opposition to the war, which was used to sway American voters.
The economic sanctions have become the most powerful in history and have deprived the American opposition of that advantage. Americans understand that the shift to stricter economic sanctions on Iran prevents their country from being embroiled in military conflicts and it further weakens the enemy. North Korea, Iraq and Syria have recovered from the negative consequences of sanctions.
Syria has a wise president who understands that his country cannot oppose the world’s greatest power. These are examples that remove the war card from the hands of the opposition. Hence, the current siege, which American President Donald Trump referred to as “an economic landing even more devastating than Normandy,” is the penultimate link in the chain of pressure on a rogue, terrorist regime that exploits every inhumane tool against 90 million people.
At the same time, the Iranian regime uses threatening language with the outside world, relying on supportive voices seeking to protect their own interests. The same applies to Hezbollah’s media apparatus in Lebanon, as well as in Iraq and Yemen. Paid agents stop playing the tune once their funding dries up and some switch sides. This is beginning to appear today on many television channels, in the media and among online trolls. This is the beginning of the end. Regimes like that of Iran often fall from the outside before they fall from within.
The sanctions on Iran will leave no room for political repositioning. Public anger is rising. If force, terror and repression quelled the January revolution, they will not be able to do so when people are starving, while the regime’s leaders squabble over the crumbs of a power that has become merely symbolic.
Their positions will be of no use to them when the revolution erupts against them once again. We said some time ago that President Donald Trump is not like the previous American presidents who tried to revive the Tehran regime through deals that ultimately failed. Iran has always tried to exploit any opportunity to reorganize its internal situation. Today, after the recent war, and given the fragile economic situation, unprecedented inflation and new sanctions, Iran will turn into a tinderbox that will consume the regime.
