The high-level meeting in Tehran, attended by representatives from Saudi Arabia, Turkiye, and Pakistan alongside President Masoud Pezeshkian and senior Iranian officials, carries unmistakable significance. For those familiar with the diplomatic roles of these three countries, the gathering represents a serious warning to Tehran - one it must heed, regardless of how difficult it may be to accept. Ignoring this message risks triggering major geopolitical shifts that could threaten not only Iran’s ruling establishment but also the future of the Iranian nation itself.
Tehran can no longer rely on its traditional diplomatic playbook of prolonging negotiations for years to extract concessions from its opponents, as it once did in its dealings with the Ottoman Empire and Tsarist Russia. The geopolitical landscape has changed dramatically, and a weakened state cannot withstand the intense pressures now converging upon it. Moreover, relying on regional militant networks in Lebanon, Iraq, and Yemen is no longer a viable strategy, given how significantly these groups have been weakened. It is increasingly apparent to neutral observers that these proxy groups have become a heavy liability for both the Iranian government and its citizens.
For ordinary Iranians, meeting basic living needs takes priority over financing proxy militant groups to expand regional sectarian influence. The regime now faces heightened fears of local uprisings following its brutal suppression of demonstrators last January, which left around 32,000 people dead - a development that marked a decisive shift in the country’s internal dynamics. These developments echo the atmosphere surrounding the fall of the Shah’s government, offering important historical lessons. The Middle East has undergone fundamental realignments, particularly as Tehran and its regional network have exposed significant vulnerabilities in the wake of the conflict that erupted in 2023.
Given these transformed realities, relying on stalling tactics and futile diplomatic manoeuvres is no longer a viable option. Ground realities stand in sharp contrast to the propaganda disseminated by troll networks (“electronic flies”) and AI-generated disinformation campaigns. Sovereign nations base their strategies on concrete evidence rather than deceptive narratives. Consequently, regional actors are pursuing deescalation, recognizing that the Middle East cannot withstand further terrorism. Historically, the Persians effectively employed the “art of exhaustion,” wearing down their opponents during 19th-century negotiations with Russia that led to the Treaty of Gulistan, as well as through centuries of diplomatic manoeuvring with the Ottomans.
Today, however, major global and regional realignments have rendered this strategy obsolete. A careful examination of recent events in Tehran, including the statements issued by Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan, reveals several important conclusions. First, a return to the regional status quo that prevailed from 1979 until the outbreak of the current conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran is no longer possible. Second, the member states of the “Makkah Alliance” remain committed to safeguarding their national security and will not compromise on this principle, even if Tehran-backed militant factions attempt to trigger further instability across the region. Third, these three powers are no longer willing to tolerate Tehran’s reckless and destabilizing conduct without clear consequences.
Consequently, any banners of victory raised in Tehran conceal a profound defeat, resembling the final, desperate struggles of a dying entity. Iranian falsehoods cannot change established realities. It is against this backdrop that Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian’s declaration of Tehran’s “readiness to support initiatives aimed at resolving disputes and strengthening security and stability” should be viewed.
