In an ancient city, someone claimed that something momentous was about to happen. At first, the people believed him, but the more he repeated it, the more they shook off the threat. So, the man tried to suggest that the event was imminent to restore some credibility. One day, while he was with some of the town residents, a storm blew, carrying dust with it. He said, “This is the momentous event I was telling you about.” The people dispersed. Since then, they did not believe him because he was always telling lies.
The same applies to Hezbollah, which has been described in the Lebanese proverb: Like the story of the jug of oil. It repeatedly threatened not to surrender its weapons, but to no avail, because it will eventually yield. Thus, whenever Naim Qassem emerges from hiding, he threatens and vows. For about five months, he has been claiming that he will not surrender his party’s weapons, threatening civil war. Every time the Lebanese come out to tell him that his weapons no longer serve a purpose, and that Lebanon has benefited from defending them in the wars he caused, he repeats the ‘oil jug’ story.
On the other hand, it seems that Qassem and his party leaders are deaf. They do not listen to reason, as they would rather listen only to those outside the country. They are being intimidated by threats from within. Anyone who knows the Lebanese people has long realized that they will do everything possible to prevent a return to civil war, for which they have paid so much and continue to pay. They are taking things in stride because the government and the president are working hard to prevent tension, so as not to provide an excuse for this party’s madmen.
Meanwhile, the so-called ‘Shiite duo’ is trying to pressure the street to meet Tehran’s demand not to give up their weapons, which have become a source of strife rather than a deterrent force, as the so-called ‘resistance alliance’ portrayed them. Today, Lebanon is at a crossroads – either it will recover and return to the Arab fold and the international community, or it will continue its isolation, which will exacerbate its poverty and living crises. President Joseph Aoun is trying to prevent this, with minimal losses. Indeed, all the capitals that send envoys to Beirut daily have warned against this. Beirut must make a quick decision, because it does not have the luxury of playing for time, especially since the region is facing major changes that will not be halted by rhetoric and slogans of resistance.
The Lebanese people, with all their sects and parties, have long been convinced that the only solution to the crisis is to end the myth of Iranian influence, and to eliminate it once and for all, so that it no longer remains a mere ‘tool’ whenever Tehran intends to blackmail any capital that uses Lebanon as an outlet. After the last war, a belief was crystallized among the majority of Lebanese, including most of the Shiite community – that the only way out of the crisis tunnel is to return to Lebanon, not to rely on foreign powers, particularly those who caused several wars and worked to perpetuate sectarian divisions, even after the country recovered from them in the decades following the end of the civil war.
Therefore, if Hezbollah wants to deviate from the provisions of the Nov 27, 2024 agreement and harass any State or group, it knows in advance that suppressing it will be much easier than in previous instances. Hence, its attempt, along with the Amal Movement, to incite the street by calling for a strike and sit-in tomorrow, is nothing but a storm in a teacup. What has been written has been written. Seeking support from Iran is like seeking support from someone who needs help to repel the blows they receive daily.
