It is difficult to recall when the United States suffered a defeat in a war. The heavy losses it suffered at Pearl Harbor and in the Philippines during World War II were eventually recovered from. The defeats in Vietnam and Afghanistan were costly, but they did not permanently damage America's international standing, as they were far removed from the arena of global competition. The initial failure in Iraq was mitigated, but a defeat in the current confrontation with Iran, should it occur, would be of a completely different nature, one that could neither be recovered from nor ignored. Robert Kagan, the prominent American historian, author, and political analyst, considered one of the leading theorists of the neoconservative movement, the architect of the °American Century's vision advocating American hegemony and military intervention to impose democracy, and a renowned columnist for The Washington Post, said, "There will be no return to the status quo, no final American victory that repairs or overcomes the damage done to the country, and the Strait of Hormuz will not be reopened in its previous state." With Iran controlling the Strait of Hormuz, it has emerged as a major player in the region.
The roles of China and Russia - Iran's allies - are strengthening, while the United States' role is significantly diminishing. America's inability to end the war will trigger a chain reaction globally, as friends and foes alike adapt to America's failure to change or topple the Iranian regime, or to extract any concessions from it. This regime, which suppressed the protests in January, will not hesitate to impose economic hardship on them now. Therefore, some proponents of war are calling for a resumption of military strikes, but they cannot explain how another round of bombing will achieve what the first did not. Further military action will inevitably provoke an Iranian response against neighboring countries, and the proponents of war have no answer for that either.
Trump did not halt the initial attacks out of boredom, but because Iran intensified its attacks on oil and gas facilities in the region. Just a few Iranian strikes could cripple the region's oil and gas infrastructure for years, perhaps even decades, plunging the world, including the United States, into a prolonged economic crisis. Even if Trump wanted to bomb Iran as part of a withdrawal strategy, projecting resolve to mask his retreat, he could not do so without risking a catastrophe. Kagan argues that the collapse of the Iranian regime is not a viable strategy, especially given its resilience amid worsening global shortages of food and essential goods.
There seems to be no solution other than an American withdrawal. Otherwise, the United States would have to wage a full-scale land and sea war to remove the regime and establish a new government. However, considering all scenarios, the failure of these plans seems likely. Iran is unlikely to relinquish control of the Strait of Hormuz easily. Iran is aware that Israel might launch a surprise attack.
On the other hand, from an international and security perspective, it is impossible to allow Iran complete control of the Strait of Hormuz. Israel would find itself more isolated than ever as Iran grows wealthier, rearms more effectively, and retains the option of acquiring nuclear weapons. Israel would face international pressure not to provoke Tehran in Lebanon or Gaza.
As researchers Reuel Gerecht and Ray Takeyh have written, the economies of the Arabian Gulf states were built under the umbrella of American hegemony. If this hegemony were to disappear, along with freedom of navigation in the Persian Gulf, these states would be forced to accommodate Tehran's demands, knowing that no power could accomplish what the United States has failed to do.
An American defeat in the Persian Gulf would have far-reaching global repercussions. The world has witnessed how a few weeks of war with a Third World country have depleted America's arms stockpiles to dangerously low levels, with no quick solution in sight. This situation raises questions about America's readiness to engage in another major war, should China launch an attack on Taiwan or should Putin escalate his aggression against Europe
