2023 was Earth’s hottest year, potentially warmest in 125,000 years

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NEW YORK, Jan 1: In a pivotal moment anticipated by scientists for months, Earth has officially concluded its warmest year since record-keeping began, possibly ranking as the hottest in 125,000 years. As per Gavin Schmidt, a scientist at NASA, December data is yet to be official, but the results were deemed “locked in” by mid-December, considering six consecutive months of exceptionally high temperatures.

The warmth experienced throughout the year makes it virtually impossible for December to bring about a cold shift significant enough to alter the final results. The warming trend has raised concerns among experts, with Robert Rohde of Berkeley Earth noting in mid-December that 2023 is beyond the point of being anything but the hottest year.

Official reports from renowned organizations, including Copernicus Climate Change Service, NASA, and NOAA, are expected to confirm the record as the “warmest year on record” in the coming weeks.

What particularly worries experts is the unprecedented rate of warming over the past century, reaching back millions of years. Meteorologist Michael Mann emphasizes the urgency to prevent devastating climate consequences, stating there is still time, but the window of opportunity is narrowing.

Every year since 2014 consistently ranks among the top 10 warmest years, based on global average temperatures compared to the previous century, as reported by NASA and NOAA. Following the warmest year in 2016, which included the influence of a strong El Niño, 2020 matched its record.

Marine heat waves and an emerging El Niño in 2023 indicated to scientists worldwide that the year would witness significant temperature increases compared to the last century. By November, NOAA reported a global surface temperature of 2.07 degrees Fahrenheit above the 1901-2000 average, surpassing the 2016 average for the same period.

The remaining question revolves around how much warmer 2023 will be, with the global agencies set to conclude their final analyses over the next two weeks.

Experts from the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and global institutions stress the importance of limiting the long-term global average temperature increase to avoid catastrophic consequences. The threshold to avoid severe outcomes is set between 1.5 – 2.0 degrees Celsius.

The complexity of measuring global average temperature involves various strategies, combining weather stations, ocean temperature readings, and satellite data. The alarming trend of increasing temperatures is expected to persist until there is a substantial effort to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

Forecasts for 2024 suggest another record-breaking year, with expectations of a strong El Niño contributing to elevated global temperatures. The World Meteorological Organization estimates the five-year period from 2023 to 2027 to be the warmest ever recorded.

Throughout 2023, each month consistently broke temperature records, with Earth experiencing 547 consecutive months with temperatures exceeding the 20th-century average. Carbon dioxide levels reached record highs in May, and heat waves influenced by climate change affected various regions globally, including the U.S. southern coast.

In addition to soaring air temperatures, ocean temperatures reached new record highs, causing widespread coral bleaching in the Florida Keys. The oceans’ increased warmth is attributed to absorbing excess heat from greenhouse gas emissions over decades.

The year 2023 also saw the return of El Niño, contributing to heightened ocean heat. Scientists are exploring the potential impact of shipping regulations and the massive release of water vapor from the Hunga Tonga – Hunga Ha’apai volcano eruption in January 2022 on Earth’s warming.

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