IHME conducts analytical study covering 195 countries
KUWAIT CITY, July 19: According to an extensive predictive statistical study covering Kuwait and 194 other countries, there has been a continuous decline in fertility rate on a large scale globally, reports Al-Rai daily.
Expectations based on such a decline indicate the world population will continue to grow until it reaches its peak in the year 2064 at about 9.7 billion people. It will then begin to decline gradually until it reaches less than 8.8 billion people by the year 2100 – a figure that is one billion less than previous estimates.
The analytical study, which is titled “Fertility, mortality, migration, and population scenarios for 195 countries and territories from 2017 to 2100”, was conducted by the Washington Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) specializing in global research. It was recently published in full text by the Lancet on its website.
According to the findings of the study, which was based on monitoring the repercussions expected due to the consequences of epidemic outbreaks, immigration waves, fertility rates and mortality globally, it is expected that the population of most countries of the world, including Kuwait, will take a regressive path after the year 2100.
Concerning Kuwait specifically, the report expected that its population (both citizens and expatriates) will continue to grow slowly such that it will reach 4.67 million people in the year 2064.
After that, this figure will start to decline gradually until it drops to 4.15 million by the year 2100. Then the Kuwaiti population will begin to take a downward path to reach less than four million people. In other words, these expectations mean the growth rate of the Kuwaiti population will take the negative route (that is, below zero) after the year 2100.
Therefore, this will mean a gradual decline in the number of people who live on the state’s land, either citizens or expatriates. Regarding the fertility rate in Kuwait, the report stated that this rate was 1.42 percent in 2017 and it would slowly grow to 1.47 percent until 2064, after which it will start declining to reach 1.44 percent by the year 2100.