UN climate talks start in the year of disasters, energy price shocks and fast rising temperatures

ANKARA, Nov 7, (AP): Three stories about climate change are playing out like popular movie genres as United Nations climate negotiations begin in Antalya, Turkey. There's the horror story. Many scientists believe global warming is accelerating. Two months ago, the UN readjusted its decade-old goal of limiting global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) because the world is blowing past that threshold.

The fallout from rising temperatures is felt globally, with Europe's deadly summer heat waves and Nepal's devastating flooding as stark examples. There's the love triangle. For more than a century, the world has been powered by coal, oil and gas. This love affair spurred economic development, as well as the emissions warming the planet. But renewable energy is capturing some of the world's attention because it's cheaper and cleaner than fossil fuels. 

Instead of switching from one to the other, the world is using both to meet demand from power-hungry artificial intelligence and ever-growing economic development. This isn't helping curb climate change. Then there's the war movie. Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine triggered a European energy shock. This year the United States and Israel bombed Iran.

The conflict closed the Strait of Hormuz and sent fossil fuel prices skyrocketing, forcing nations to rethink their energy systems. These stories are colliding as the 31st Conference of Parties, or COP31, starts Monday with speeches from world leaders and will later dig into how to follow through on past climate pledges.

A key issue this year is the implementation of promises to transition away from fossil fuels. Co-host Turkey is also pushing a separate plan that would help do that by shifting more global energy use - including transportation - to electricity generated from solar and wind power. Negotiators also will hash out how to provide promised funds to poor countries to switch to renewables, adapt to a warmer world and recover from climate-induced damage.

"It’s really the moment that we place a magnifying lens on what’s happening in the world on climate change, both good and bad,” David Waskow, international climate chief at the World Resources Institute, said. While the U.S. is the world’s largest historic carbon polluter, it skipped last year's COP and isn't expected to participate this year.

"There’s always two topics in the climate negotiations that are relevant and difficult,” said Niklas Höhne, co-founder of Germany’s NewClimate Institute. "The first one is who produces emissions (and) how much. That is difficult enough. But what is even more complicated is the other issue, and that is who pays. And on this one, we are particularly in a difficult situation because the U.S., as the largest contributor, has dropped out. And there’s no other player who can jump in.”