Survey forecasts Prabowo Subianto’s victory in Indonesia’s presidential election

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Presidential candidate Prabowo Subianto waves at his supporters as he speaks during his campaign rally at Gelora Bung Karno Main Stadium in Jakarta, Indonesia, Saturday, Feb. 10. (AP)

INDONESIA, Feb 10: On the eve of the country’s presidential election, Indonesian Defence Minister Prabowo Subianto appears set to clinch victory with over 50% of the votes, according to an opinion survey released on Saturday, marking the final day of campaigning.

The survey, conducted by Lembaga Survei Indonesia (LSI) between January 29 and February 5 with 1,220 respondents, projects Prabowo to secure 51.9% of the votes. Trailing behind are former Jakarta Governor Anies Baswedan with 23.3% support and Ganjar Pranowo, former leader of Central Java province, with 20.3%. Approximately 4.4% of respondents remained undecided.

Consistently leading in Indonesia’s most-watched surveys, Prabowo’s popularity surge has been attributed to his strategic alliance with Gibran Rakabuming Raka, the son of President Joko Widodo. This partnership signaled to voters that the outgoing president would throw his weight behind Prabowo’s candidacy, according to executive director Djayadi Hanan of LSI.

The prospect of Prabowo winning outright in the first round has heightened as pollsters project him surpassing the 50% threshold required to avoid a runoff in June. However, the survey’s 95% confidence interval and 2.9% margin of error indicate a potential for a second round, with uncertainties surrounding the runner-up.

The implicit backing of Prabowo’s candidacy by President Joko Widodo, popularly known as Jokowi, has stirred controversy, with accusations of interference and bias. Despite denying any explicit endorsement, Jokowi’s public appearances with Prabowo’s running mate, Gibran, have fueled speculation about his allegiances.

Gibran’s inclusion on Prabowo’s ticket came about due to a last-minute court decision altering eligibility rules, a move that has drawn criticism and scrutiny in the lead-up to the election. As the nation awaits the election results, the political landscape remains charged with anticipation and speculation over the future leadership of Indonesia.

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