LONDON, Sept 7: OPEC+ is expected to announce an increase in oil production on Sunday, but the planned output rise for October will likely be smaller than recent monthly increases, sources familiar with the discussions said on Saturday. The move reflects concerns about slowing global demand following the end of the summer driving season.

Since April, OPEC+ has reversed earlier production cuts and raised quotas by roughly 2.5 million barrels per day (bpd), representing about 2.4% of global oil demand. This shift aims to regain market share and comes amid pressure from US President Donald Trump to bring down oil prices.

Despite these increases, oil prices have remained resilient, trading near $66 a barrel. Prices have been supported by Western sanctions on major producers Russia and Iran, which have encouraged output growth from rival producers, particularly the United States.

The planned production boost will begin to roll back a second layer of OPEC+ cuts totaling approximately 1.65 million bpd, more than a year earlier than originally scheduled. Negotiations are reportedly focused on phasing out these cuts gradually through monthly increments.

Two OPEC+ sources said the group has agreed in principle to raise production by at least 135,000 bpd starting in October. Another source suggested that the increase could be larger, ranging between 200,000 and 350,000 bpd.

At their last meeting in August, OPEC+ approved a 547,000 bpd increase for September.

OPEC+, which includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries plus Russia and allied producers, is scheduled to hold an online meeting on Sunday at 12:30 GMT to finalize decisions.

Brent crude futures settled at $65.50 per barrel on Friday, down 2.2%, pressured by a weak U.S. jobs report and anticipation of the upcoming OPEC+ production hike. However, prices remain above the 2025 low of $58 reached in April.

Production increases have fallen short of targets because many members are already producing near maximum capacity. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are currently the only countries able to add significant new barrels to the market, according to analysts and official data.

Currently, OPEC+ maintains two layers of production cuts: an 8-member group cut of 1.65 million bpd, and a broader group-wide cut of 2 million bpd, both set to remain in place through the end of 2026.