OPEC+ is shifting focus to market share over prices

13/09/2025

OPEC+ is shifting focus to market share over prices

OPEC+ appears to be taking relentless action to push more oil into the market, regardless of the consequences. The organization is clearly focused on regaining its lost market share and is determined to sideline less competitive producers in the process. The message is clear - control of the oil market rests with it. The group seems unconcerned about weakening oil prices or whether its member states can meet their budget targets. Many are now being forced to resort to borrowing just to finance their annual budgets. Oil prices are still below $70 per barrel, yet OPEC+ continues to flood the market with more supply.

Today, the organization appears more interested in boosting oil volumes to generate higher overall revenues, rather than aiming for higher prices with limited output. As a result, the group has agreed to increase production again next month, marking six consecutive months of output hikes. This indicates a clear change in strategy - volume and revenue have become the new policy. Eight OPEC+ members, including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, and Kuwait, have decided to increase crude oil output, collectively adding around 137,000 barrels per day to the market. However, the actual increase may end up being significantly lower, possibly closer to 60,000 barrels per day.

This time, OPEC seems less concerned about the potential for further price declines and more focused on boosting overall revenues. The strategy may also be aimed at pressuring less competitive producers and discouraging further output increases from non-OPEC countries. The priority has clearly shifted to higher production, and most importantly, higher revenues. OPEC appears to believe that now is the right moment to reclaim lost ground and maximize its earnings after years of sacrificing market share in pursuit of higher prices. So far, OPEC+ has increased its oil production by more than 2.5 million barrels per day, with additional volumes expected to be approved for November as well. The group appears firmly committed to prioritizing production volumes and generating more cash.

It is clear that a shift in policy has taken place. OPEC+ is now discussing ramping up output and reclaiming lost market share. Since April 2023, OPEC+ has been aiming to recover its lost volume of 1.7 million barrels per day. The question on everyone’s mind is whether OPEC+’s earlier decision to cut production to raise oil prices has failed. Over time, it has become increasingly clear that the policy did not deliver the desired results. This is evident in the cartel’s recent shift to set aside production quotas and allow member states more freedom to produce, seemingly waiting to see how the market responds. The big uncertainty now is whether the market still needs more oil or not. Today, the market is closely observing to see how long OPEC+ will remain patient, and at what price level the group might be prompted to intervene once again.

Is this a test by OPEC+ to determine the market’s tolerance for increased crude oil volumes? Or perhaps a way to identify its own price floor? There are also growing questions about leadership within the group. Has OPEC+ lost its central guiding force? Why, for example, should Saudi Arabia continue to bear the burden of production cuts alone, especially when other members reap the benefits while contributing little or nothing to the collective effort? Saudi Arabia’s sacrifices have been limited and short-term, and without proportional reward.

By Kamel Al-Harami
Independent Oil Analyst
Email: naftikuwaiti@yahoo. com