Oil volatility between $55 & $60 a barrel in 2027-’28

11/07/2026

It is very difficult to forecast oil prices for the next two years. However, this does not mean that analysts cannot estimate future price trends under certain conditions, such as weak oil demand, slow economic growth, or prolonged stagnation in global d e m a n d under different scenarios. There is, of course, no exact price that can be predicted with certainty. Any forecast is based on assumptions, including weak demand, limited economic growth, and sluggish global activity.

Today, Brent crude oil from the North Sea is trading at around $76 per barrel. The question is whether oil prices could decline further. The current price is significantly lower than four months ago, when Brent crude exceeded $123 per barrel. Russia has benefited by increasing crude oil sales to various parts of the world after the U.S. administration allowed India to import more than 2.7 million barrels per day of Russian crude, making India the largest buyer of Russian oil. Russia supplied most of India’s oil imports following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which halted crude exports from the Arabian Gulf oil producers. It seems almost like history to imagine and believe that a complete closure or zero exports of crude oil, refined products, and gas from major oil-producing countries, totaling more than 15 million barrels per day, could occur.

However, no severe oil shortage took place, and no country dependent on imported energy faced a complete shutdown of gas stations. Certainly, strategic oil reserves, short-term supplies, long-term reserves, and storage capacity played a major role in preventing panic and shortages. This experience has taught oil importing nations how to better prepare for future disruptions, either by expanding their long-term storage capacity or by taking advantage of lower oil prices to increase their reserves. The United States has followed this approach for many years. It has also managed to support Europe by exporting U.S. crude oil to the continent.

Today, oil prices are at a comfortable level for global consumers, standing at around $76 per barrel. The challenge is whether we will see the same or lower prices by the end of the year and throughout 2027. We certainly hope so, but the sharp and unpredictable price fluctuations seen so far are unrealistic. Certainly, OPEC+ has done a remarkable job in maintaining order and stability in the oil markets despite the withdrawal of some important members. OPEC+ is definitely committed to its goal of stabilizing oil prices for years to come. Well done, OPEC and its partners.

By Kamel Al-Harami Independent Oil Analyst ❑ ❑ ❑ Email: [email protected]