Oil prices under pressure as global glut persists

03/01/2026

As the new year begins, concerns over oil prices this year are growing. A global glut and oversupply are keeping prices weak and are expected to do so for the remainder of 2025. Brent crude is trading at $60 a barrel, while U.S. WTI is at $57 a barrel, maintaining its usual differential against the benchmark of Brent North Sea crude oil. While OPEC+ did not take any action last year to influence or stabilize oil prices, it maintained its stance of non-interference, allowing the market to self-correct.

This comes although OPEC+ countries are losing revenue and income and, for the third consecutive year, have been forced to rely on borrowing. With the global crude oil surplus exceeding four million barrels per day, it will be difficult for OPEC+ to address the oversupply on its own. Other oil producers will also need to cut their output, not for the sake of the organization, but to protect their own revenues and improve their balance sheets before the end of the year. We are not asking non-OPEC+ producers to support OPEC+ for its sake, but for their own benefit.

OPEC+ has already acted and is not in a position to reduce its production further. It is now up to non-OPEC producers to cut their output, knowing that the market is already flooded with oil, including volumes beyond their control, with little management. Current oil demand stands at 104 million barrels per day, with expected consumption for the rest of the year around 105.5 million barrels per day.

Meanwhile, crude oil supply ranges between 105 and 107 million barrels per day, creating a surplus. This excess supply is contributing to weak prices, averaging around $61 per barrel. The solution, as some anticipate, is to call on OPEC+ to reduce oil production, allowing non-OPEC+ producers to benefit from OPEC+’s action. However, it may be time for OPEC+ to hold back and take no action, letting other producers face the same revenue pressures as OPEC+. If U.S. shale producers can survive at $54 - $55 per barrel, they must adapt. Low prices will limit their ability to explore and develop new fields, leaving them under the protection and umbrella of OPEC+.

Weak oil prices are worrisome for everyone. Controlling supply is a complex responsibility that requires coordination among all producers. It must not be exploited by sudden increases in production during periods of stable prices. All producers need to adhere to disciplined production levels and avoid taking advantage of the market or one another.

By Kamel Al-Harami Independent Oil Analyst Email: [email protected]