Oil prices: Fictitious numbers

28/03/2026

With no oil movements, no lifting of crude oil, and no shipping sailing through the Arabian Gulf, major oil price publications are still quoting crude oil prices from the region at astronomical levels. The most striking example is the recent quotations for Arab Gulf crude, ranging from $133 to $160 for Oman crude , and $146 for Kuwait crude, even though no crude oil is being lifted or loaded from Mina Al- Ahmadi.

Of course, there is a war ongoing in the Arabian Gulf, with attacks on Iran by the USA and Israel, which has halted the movement of crude oil, finished petroleum products, and gas from most loading terminals in the Gulf, including Kuwait. This has driven oil prices up, more than doubling them, with Brent crude exceeding $111 a barrel. How long will this war situation continue, causing disruptions to oil supply, fueling speculation, and contributing to global inflation? This will affect the cost of living for every household and could lead to a recession.

Today, the concern is over future tight supply and availability of finished products like jet fuel and diesel. Arabian Gulf refineries supply part of Europe with the required clean refined products, while most of their output goes to East of Suez markets, including Pakistan, India, South Korea, and Japan, which are the main outlets for Arabian Gulf refineries.

With the Strait of Hormuz in its fourth week of disruption, pressure is growing daily. The halt of all oil shipments is creating tightness in the markets, which could force some countries to tap into their strategic reserves, if they have not already, potentially causing panic in some consuming markets.

The concern is that the war could widen, leading to a longer closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which could gradually cause shortages of oil and refined products and spread globally, creating panic and shortages worldwide. The Strait of Hormuz is controlled by Iran according to its own interests. The navigational passage is free for all countries and does not belong to any single nation. It has been open for centuries.

Now, Iran seeks to take control of the Arabian Gulf and impose fees for using and navigating the waters, which is unreasonable. It belongs to all and should remain free for everyone, without charges, duties, or fees. This is not the time to antagonize long-term friends and neighbors. Today’s high oil prices are unrealistic, with no transactions taking place at any level or volume. Quoting Kuwait crude at $146 a barrel does not reflect actual sales. If no crude oil is sold at this price, it raises serious questions about the reliability of the source. With no oil tankers entering the Arabian Gulf, the figure of $146 for Kuwait crude loading from Mina Al- Ahmadi is not real or practical. The number is fictitious, created by oil speculators.

By Kamel Al-Harami Independent Oil Analyst
Email: [email protected]