12/04/2026
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12/04/2026
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DUBAI, Apr 12: Oil prices could rise sharply if the United States proceeds with a threatened blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, with analysts warning of significant market disruption.
Michael Lynch said the move could push prices up by $5 to $10 per barrel when markets reopen, as it could remove up to 2 million barrels per day from global supply. He noted that the ongoing Iran conflict has already reduced supply by around 10 million barrels per day, adding further pressure.
Despite the potential spike, Lynch suggested the blockade could be short-lived, citing possible political and economic pressure on Washington to reverse course if prices surge too quickly.
Other analysts echoed concerns but highlighted uncertainty around how the blockade would be implemented. Kevin Book said tighter supply would likely push prices higher, though the scale of the increase would depend on enforcement and scope.
Meanwhile, Jonathan Elkind pointed to uncertainty over timing and execution, noting that delays or changes in policy could influence market reactions.
Experts also warned that any retaliation by Iran or its regional allies targeting alternative export routes could drive prices even higher, further destabilizing global energy markets.
