30/08/2026
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30/08/2026
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DUBAI, Aug 30: Iran is increasingly losing the leverage it gained by disrupting shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, as renewed US military pressure and efforts to secure commercial traffic intensify economic strain on Tehran, according to a CNN analysis by former senior US official Brett McGurk.
McGurk, who served in senior national security positions under four US presidents, said the six-month conflict has entered a new phase following renewed Iranian attacks on commercial shipping. He wrote that Washington has reimposed a military blockade on Iranian ports and sanctions targeting Iran’s oil trade, while US forces have worked to clear shipping lanes and protect commercial vessels transiting the strategic waterway.
According to McGurk, oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz have recovered to around two-thirds of pre-war levels, reducing Iran’s ability to use disruption of the vital shipping route as economic leverage. He argued that if Tehran loses the ability to effectively hold the strait hostage, its bargaining power could diminish rapidly.
The economic pressure on Iran is also mounting. McGurk cited International Monetary Fund projections that the Iranian economy could contract by more than 5% this year, while inflation approaches 70%. He also pointed to a sharp decline in the Iranian rial and rising prices for essential goods, as well as an Iranian Labor Ministry estimate that more than one million jobs were lost during the first three months of the war.
McGurk warned that Iran still has options to escalate, including renewed attacks on commercial shipping, energy infrastructure in neighboring countries or the use of the Houthis to threaten commerce in the Red Sea. However, he argued that these measures have so far failed to force Washington to retreat.
Despite the growing pressure, McGurk cautioned that the outcome remains uncertain. “It’s too early to call,” he wrote, noting that Iran had expected to withstand US pressure for longer.
