CIA: Iran Can Endure 4 Months Under US Naval Blockade; Khamenei Shaping Iran War Strategy Despite Leadership Crisis

WASHINGTON, May 9: As fighting between the United States and Iran intensified in the Persian Gulf, a new US intelligence assessment concluded that Iran could withstand a US naval blockade for up to four months, according to a Reuters report, suggesting the conflict may drag on despite efforts to end the war.

The CIA analysis reportedly found that the US bombing campaign against Iran — hailed by US President Donald Trump as a major success — has failed to force Tehran’s leadership into capitulation. A US official familiar with the assessment said the findings indicate Iran retains the ability to continue resisting militarily and politically.

The report comes as Washington faces mounting domestic pressure to bring the conflict to a close, while military exchanges continue across the region and tensions remain high around key shipping routes in the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz.

Separately, CNN reported that US intelligence agencies believe Iran’s leadership remains fractured internally but is still actively shaping wartime strategy and negotiations despite growing uncertainty inside the system.

According to the report, Mojtaba Khamenei is believed to be playing a role in strategic decision-making alongside senior Iranian officials, although US intelligence has not clearly determined the extent of his authority.

The report added that Khamenei has not appeared publicly since reportedly sustaining serious injuries during an attack that killed his father and several senior military commanders at the beginning of the war. US intelligence agencies have not independently confirmed his current whereabouts.

Sources cited by CNN also said Iran’s military capabilities have been significantly degraded by US strikes but not destroyed, with intelligence estimates suggesting that a substantial portion of Iran’s missile systems remains operational despite the ongoing bombing campaign.