Carney's stand against Trump leads to Nobel Peace Prize, Time Person of the Year buzz

TORONTO, Sept 30, (AP): Mark Carney built a global profile in 2026 by standing up to US President Donald Trump. If some prediction-market traders and prominent admirers are right, the Canadian prime minister could end the year with the Nobel Peace Prize and Time magazine’s Person of the Year.

Carney briefly became the favorite Monday for the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize on Kalshi, a US-based prediction market, when traders on the exchange put his chances at 14%. His odds later fell, illustrating the highly speculative nature of the wagering.

There is no public evidence Carney is on the Nobel Committee’s secret shortlist for the prize that will be announced Oct 9 in Oslo, Norway. But the buzz about the Canadian leader possibly winning the esteemed peace prize reflects the message that has raised his profile: Middle powers should band together to defend sovereignty as great powers increasingly use economic and military leverage.

Whether that position resonates with the Nobel Committee is impossible to know. One thing is certain, though: the Nobel and Time's annual award happen to be two honors Trump covets. Carney and Trump are locked in an escalating trade war, with 50% US tariffs on billions of dollars of Canadian goods and Canadian retaliation. Trump also has told Canadian leaders to "fall in line” or face consequences "far WORSE” than existing tariffs.

Trump, who has twice been Time’s Person of the Year, has repeatedly complained about not receiving the Nobel, saying in July that he "should have won that award more than anybody.” "President Trump would be furious, of course,” said Daniel Béland, a political science professor at McGill University in Montreal. "If this ever happens, I would love to be a fly on the wall of the Oval Office to see the president’s face when he learns about it.”

Trump already possesses a Nobel medal, just not one awarded to him. Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado, the 2025 Nobel laureate, presented Trump with her medal at the White House in January. Trump accepted it, while the Nobel Committee stressed the prize itself remains hers.

"Trump will be unhappy whoever gets the Nobel,” said Nelson Wiseman, professor emeritus at the University of Toronto. "If Carney got it, it would make relations with Canada rockier than they are.” Time already named Carney one of its 100 most influential people of 2026 and specifically noted his popularity increased as he stood up to Trump.