28/04/2026
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28/04/2026
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WASHINGTON, Apr 28: A new forecast by the International Monetary Fund suggests that Bangladesh is set to surpass India in per capita gross domestic product (GDP) measured in current U.S. dollars in 2026, marking a symbolic shift between the two neighboring economies.
According to the projections, Bangladesh’s per capita GDP is expected to reach $2,911, slightly ahead of India’s $2,812. While the gap is modest, the development has drawn attention given the stark difference in the size of the two economies. India’s economy, estimated at around $3.9 trillion in 2025, is nearly eight times larger than Bangladesh’s $458 billion, and remains one of the world’s fastest-growing major economies.
The projection has sparked debate among economists and analysts in India, including Kaushik Basu, former chief economist of the World Bank, who described the development as surprising. Experts note, however, that such comparisons are often influenced by currency movements as much as underlying economic performance.
Historically, Bangladesh has outperformed India on this specific metric before. It maintained higher per capita GDP in current dollar terms from 2018 to 2024, before India briefly regained the lead in 2025 following a sharp depreciation of the Bangladeshi taka. Similar shifts were observed earlier between 1989 and 2002, highlighting the volatility of this measure.
Economists point out that GDP per capita in current dollars is heavily affected by exchange rates. When a country’s currency weakens against the U.S. dollar—as both the taka and the rupee have in recent years—it reduces the dollar value of its economic output, regardless of domestic growth.
The IMF expects Bangladesh to move ahead again in 2026 by a narrow margin, but projects that India will regain the lead in 2027 and maintain it through at least 2031.
A broader perspective comes from purchasing power parity (PPP)-adjusted GDP per capita, which accounts for differences in living costs and removes exchange rate distortions. On this basis, India continues to lead by a significant margin. In 2025, India’s PPP-adjusted per capita GDP is estimated at $11,789, about 15% higher than Bangladesh’s $10,271. The gap is projected to widen further by 2031, with India reaching $18,485 compared to Bangladesh’s $14,857.
Analysts say the projected crossover in 2026 reflects how closely matched the two economies have become in dollar terms, but caution that it does not necessarily indicate a broader shift in living standards or economic strength.
