28/09/2026
Share:
28/09/2026
Share:
NEW YORK, Sept 28: Travelers could be stuck paying high airfares even if oil and jet fuel prices fall, major U.S. airlines and industry analysts say.
The price of jet fuel shot up after the Iran war began and retreated sharply in the spring before surging again as the summer went on. Such fluctuations make it harder for airlines to plan ahead and give them a reason to be cautious about lowering ticket prices, according to Brett House, an economist who teaches at Columbia Business School.
Jet fuel has risen even faster than oil during the war, reflecting both higher crude prices and tight supplies of the refined fuel that is one of airlines’ largest operating expenses. Carriers cut some less profitable flights and raised fares and baggage fees, although major U.S. airlines said higher passenger revenue initially covered only part of their soaring fuel costs.
Airfares haven’t moved in lockstep with fuel prices, however. The Argus U.S. Jet Fuel Index plunged from an early April peak of $4.88 a gallon to a wartime low of $2.70 in June, but average fares remained elevated.
The average fare, not including optional fees for services such as checked bags and seat selection, rose from $405 in the last three months of 2025 to $428 in the first quarter of this year and to $436 in the April-June period, according to the Bureau of Transportation Statistics.
Part of the disconnect between fuel prices and airfares comes down to timing, House said. Airlines typically decide several months in advance how many flights to operate and seats to offer, factoring in expected fuel costs and other expenses. They begin selling tickets even earlier. While prices for seats on the same flight can change repeatedly, airlines can’t charge more for seats already sold if fuel prices suddenly spike, he explained.
“It’s not just the level of fuel costs that is a problem or a challenge for airlines,” House said. “It’s also the volatility.”
There are few signs of relief so far for travelers as airlines adjust their schedules and prices for the remainder of the year. In August, U.S. airfares were 23% higher than a year earlier, according to the Labor Department. Jet fuel prices kept climbing this month, reaching $4.53 a gallon on Sept. 17, according to the Argus index.
At $4.30 a gallon on Friday, the average price across the four U.S. markets the index tracks remained nearly twice the 2025 average. Travelers shopping for holiday flights already are encountering the highest airfares in a decade, travel-booking company Hopper said in a report published the same day.
The company, which tracks fares available in flight searches, estimated that during the previous week, a round-trip domestic fare averaged $402 for Thanksgiving travel and $452 for Christmas, 31% and 23% more than last year.
And the pressure on airlines and travelers isn’t limited to the United States. Globally, jet fuel averaged about $99 a barrel on Feb. 27, the day before the war began, according to the International Air Transport Association’s Jet Fuel Price Monitor. Prices more than doubled to $209 by early April, fell for nearly three months and reached $195 a barrel in mid-September following their renewed ascent, IATA said, citing data from S&P Global Energy Platts.