WHEN 12 major oil producers in the world meet in Doha next week to improve the current imbalance between the supply of, and demand for, oil at the level of last January, Tehran’s presence or absence will have no bearing on the meeting.
Therefore, Iran’s Minister of Oil Bijan Namdar Zangeneh must understand that as long as he believes his country will not comply with any agreement if Tehran’s quota is nowhere near the pre-sanctions era of 2011, he will be fooling himself, not the world.
Iran reached the peak of 4.3 million barrels per day (bpd) way back in 2013; nothing changed but the prices declined by 60 percent.
Almost one week ago, the minister said he will attend the meeting time permitting, but it appears he must have succumbed to the ‘need of the hour’ and informed his Russian counterpart that he will be in Doha although he may have lied to his nation.
What he forgets here is by the time Tehran gets its old-fashioned infrastructure going to produce the four million barrels per day, the other oil producing nations will have outdone Iran, fixed their quotas and signed contracts with their clients as a result of which it will be almost impossible for Iran to flood the oil market with its oil.
Perhaps, the Mullahs may have forgotten that the regime of Saddam Hussein, in the past, had built a massive complicated network to smuggle oil, but was unable to influence the market because of international commitments and obligations. We tell Iran the world oil market is not a grocery shop as it tends to believe.
The illusory victory which Iran lived following the lifting of sanctions has vanished in thin air. When everything looks normal the oppressive nature of the regime of Mullahs makes it believe it is fighting for survival among the countries of the region.
Moreover, it wrongfully believes it is punishing the countries of the region by adopting contradictory attitudes, but in fact it punishing its own people who are living under poverty line.
Moreover, the Iranian production will not influence the GCC countries which collectively produce about 20 million bpd even if Tehran hits the four million bpd mark in the best case.
Its ally Russia seeks diligently to relieve the impact of the crisis over Iran, although Moscow produces 11 million bpd but is enthusiastic to meet the other oil producers.
Does ‘Mr know-all’ think that these oil producing countries will wait for the regime of Mullahs to end its speculations to attend international summits?
What we see is a contemporary phase of group madness in the Iranian behavior whether at the level of Tehran’s relations with the international community or military or political interferences in the affairs of other countries and even provocations at doctrinal level.
Iran is good at creating chaos even on the internal front. Exaggeration and torturing the nation has been its passion just to prove that in the end it will be victorious in a battle where it was beaten severely.
Can the international community rely on nations such as Iran? Will we hear in the next few months that the (US President Barack) Obama who did his best to lift the sanctions from the regime of Mullahs saying it was his big mistake like the mistake his country did by entering Libya?
By Ahmed Al-Jarallah – Editor-in-Chief, the Arab Times