Arab producers pushing for unachievable targets – Lack of investments a drawback

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Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) last week announced its objective to increase its crude oil production to four million barrels by the end of 2020, and to five million barrels by 2030 at a cost of $130 billion.

With its current production level being close to three million barrels, it means ADNOC must produce an additional one million barrels in the coming two years.

Kuwait on the other hand has been stating that it will achieve its target of three million and 3.5 million barrels of production, but its daily production level is still short of three million by more than 200,000 barrels, as per the latest crude oil production survey held in the last two months.

Sometimes national oil companies tend to exaggerate their targets and estimates for the sake of good publicity but they are never backed by hard facts. On the other hand, the US crude oil production, which has been improving its production figures since the start of the shale oil revolution, is today one among the biggest oil producers, beating Russia and Saudi Arabia at 11.6 million barrels per day, with the possibility of reaching more than 12 million barrels by the end of next year.

It is great for oil countries to fix goals and targets, and show the world its commitment to stabilize energy price. At the same time, it should not fear any shortage in oil due to lack of investments. However, this must be done with reason and realistic figures in order to be believed, as well as with strict follow up and annual progress reports. Gulf producers of Arabian oil are the ones with the heaviest oil reserves but with minimum technology to extract the oil in a short time. They are unable to reach their targets mainly due to difficulties in preparing the necessary documentation and tender procedures, which should not take much time because of the national oil companies’ experiences. Once again, no one seems capable of giving a valid and firm reply.

Else, how is it that KPC is not able to explain its inability to reach its target of 3 or 3.5 million barrels per day so far? National oil companies should set simple deliverable targets instead of long numbers without achieving any results but continuing to chew out the same figures over and over again.

By Kamel Al-Harami Independent Oil Analyst

email: [email protected]

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