TEHRAN, Feb 21, (Agencies): Iran would take pre-emptive action against its enemies if it felt its national interests were endangered, the deputy head of the Islamic Republic’s armed forces was quoted by a semi-official news agency as saying on Tuesday.
“Our strategy now is that if we feel our enemies want to endanger Iran’s national interests, and want to decide to do that, we will act without waiting for their actions,” Mohammad Hejazi told Fars news agency.
Iran is facing increasing international pressure and isolation over its disputed nuclear activity. Expanded Western sanctions aim to block its economically vital oil exports and Tehran has said it could retaliate by shutting the Strait of Hormuz shipping lane vital to global energy supplies.
Still, a top US intelligence official said last week that while US spy services believed Iran would respond if attacked, they thought it was unlikely to start a conflict.
Israel and the United States do not rule out military action against Iran if sanctions and diplomacy fail to rein in its nuclear energy campaign.
Senior UN inspectors have begun their second round of talks in Tehran in three weeks, seeking Iranian explanations with respect to intelligence about “possible military dimensions” to the Iranian nuclear programme.
Iran denies Western accusations that it is covertly seeking the means to build nuclear weapons and in recent weeks has again vowed no nuclear retreat, but also voiced willingness to resume negotiations with world powers without preconditions.
Iran says it is enriching uranium solely as fuel for a future network of nuclear power stations, not for bombs.
The European Union enraged Tehran last month when it decided to slap a boycott on its oil to take full effect on July 1.
On Sunday, Iran’s oil ministry announced a retaliatory halt in oil sales to French and British companies, though that step will be largely symbolic as those firms had already greatly reduced purchases of Iranian crude.
On Monday, the European Commission said Belgium, the Czech Republic and the Netherlands had already stopped buying Iranian oil, while Greece, Spain and Italy were cutting back purchases.
Tighter sanctions including the pending embargo on Iranian oil imports into the EU have helped push oil prices up to $119 a barrel from $107 at the start of the year.
Meanwhile, Iran said on Tuesday it views its nuclear activities as a non-negotiable right, but confirmed they will be discussed in mooted talks with world powers aimed at defusing a crisis containing the seeds of a new Middle East war.
“The issue of our country’s peaceful nuclear activities will be on the agenda of talks between Iran and the P5+1 (the five permanent UN Security Council members plus Germany),” foreign ministry spokesman Ramin Mehmanparast told reporters in a televised briefing.
“Our main demand is recognition of our right to possess the (nuclear) technology for peaceful purposes,” Mehmanparast said.
“That right has been achieved, and we don’t think there is a negotiable issue regarding our nuclear activities.”
Mehmanparast’s comments came on the second day of a two-day visit by officials from the UN nuclear watchdog for talks focused on “possible military dimensions” of the nuclear programme.
The visit was seen as an important precursor to the possible P5+1 talks.
The ministry spokesman said the aim of the visit by the International Atomic Energy Agency officials was not inspections but to talk about “a framework to pursue dialogue and cooperation between Iran and the IAEA.”
A previous IAEA visit to Tehran late last month was inconclusive.
Tensions have risen dramatically this year over Iran’s nuclear programme, which much of the West suspects includes research to develop atomic weapons.
Israel has provoked increasing speculation it is poised to launch air strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites, raising the possibility of a wider conflict being triggered that could draw in the United States, EU nations, and Saudi Arabia.
Iran on Monday announced its military was holding exercises to boost air defences around its nuclear facilities.
Vulnerable
Despite its confident saber-rattling, Israel’s concern is growing that the country is vulnerable to a devastating counterstrike if it attacks Iran’s nuclear program.
An announcement this week that a mobile rocket-defense system will soon be built just outside Tel Aviv, where Israel’s sprawling military headquarters sits smack in the middle of office towers, museums, night spots and hotels, caused some jitters. Israeli officials cite intelligence reports that Tel Aviv would be a main target of any attack.
Increasingly, the debate in Israel is turning to whether a strike can do enough damage to the Iranian program to be worth the risks. Experts believe that any attack would at best set back, but not cripple, the Iranians.
Skepticism about Israel’s ability to defend itself runs deep here. Israelis still remember Iraqi Scuds landing in the center of the country 20 years ago. In 2006, the Lebanese Hezbollah militia seemed able to rain rockets at will during a monthlong conflict with the Jewish state. A scathing government report issued months ago suggested the homefront is still woefully unprepared.
In a questionably timed move, the Cabinet minister in charge of civil defense in recent days resigned to become the ambassador to faraway China.
Vice Prime Minister Dan Meridor, who also serves as minister of intelligence and atomic energy, indicated Monday that Israel was facing a new type of peril.
“Whereas in the past, there was a battlefield where tanks fought tanks, planes fought planes, there was a certain push not to see the homefront affected. Now the war is mainly in the homefront,” the normally tight-lipped Meridor told The Associated Press.
“The whole of Israel (is vulnerable to) tens of thousands of missiles and rockets from neighboring countries. So of course we need to understand the change of paradigm,” he continued. “If there is a war, and I hope there isn’t a war, they are not just going to hit Israeli soldiers. The main aim is at civilian populations.”
Both Israel and the West believe Iran is trying to develop a nuclear bomb - a charge Tehran denies. Israel believes a nuclear-armed Iran would be a threat to its very existence, citing Iranian leaders’ calls for its destruction.
Israel has welcomed international sanctions imposed on the Islamic regime, but it has pointedly refused to rule out military action. In recent weeks, top leaders have sent signals that patience is running thin.
An Israeli military strike would very likely draw an Iranian retaliation, experts believe, which would involve either Iran firing its long-range Shahab missiles or acting via local proxies of Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza or even Assad loyalists in Syria.
Meanwhile, two Iranian warships sent by Tehran to the Mediterranean last week to help “train the Syrian navy” entered the Suez canal early on Tuesday on their way back to Iran, a canal authorities source told AFP.
The ships, a destroyer and supply vessel, came from the Syrian port of Tartus and were heading south towards the Red Sea, the source said, adding that they were due to complete their transit of the canal by Tuesday afternoon.
Their arrival in Tartus, announced by Iranian state media on Monday, came amid heightened tensions between Iran and Israel, fuelled by a longstanding row over Tehran’s nuclear programme, and as unrest continues to rock Syria.
Speculation has been rising that Israel might launch air strikes against Iranian atomic facilities.
Iran is a key ally of President Bashar al-Assad, and accuses Israel and the West of seeking to destabilise Syria, where activists say the regime’s 11-month crackdown on pro-democracy activists has left more than 6,000 people dead.
Oil
An increase in world oil prices above $120 has more than compensated Iran for revenues lost to lower crude exports because of sanctions imposed by the West, the head of the world’s leading oil trader said on Tuesday.
Ian Taylor, chief executive of privately-held Vitol, said a decline in the value of the euro versus the US dollar had also lifted the cost of dollar-denominated oil sales to European Union countries.
“The Iranians now want the price as high as possible as they’ve got less volumes to sell. I reckon they are probably quite close to winning based on the numbers. That was what everybody in the industry always thought would be the likely result,” said Taylor.
“The politicians are all avoiding the subject at the moment but as you know oil is extremely expensive, especially in euros,” he said.
Brent crude traded near $121 a barrel on Tuesday, up from $107 a barrel at the start of the year but below a record high in 2008 of $147.
A decline in Iranian oil sales since the European Union announced an embargo on Iranian oil imports from July 1 has been a leading factor in the price rise. The weaker euro means oil measured in euros is near record highs. Brent in euros touched a high of 91.8 euros a barrel last week compared to a record 93.46 euros in July 2008.
The US and Europe imposed tough financial measures on Iran in an attempt to stop Tehran developing what they fear is a nuclear weapons capability. Western diplomats say sanctions, including the EU embargo, aim to cut Iran’s oil revenues.
Iran says its nuclear programme is to generate electricty and that it will find other customers for its oil. It has retaliated by ordering a halt to oil sales to British and French companies.
Taylor, a former Shell executive, said that the likelihood of an Israeli airstrike on Iran had increased and was likely to push oil prices to $150 a barrel.
“I used to think this would never happen but everyone you speak to says the Israelis will have a go at striking at Iranian nuclear sites,” he said.
“The day that happens, you have to believe the Iranians throw a few mines in the Strait of Hormuz and for a few hours at least, or maybe more, I cannot see a scenario where prices would not be at that sort of level ($150 a barrel).”
“A macro fund tends to trade the flat price and for those guys I suspect they will just want to buy,” he said.
The Vitol executive said he saw little chance in the short-term of a retreat in oil prices from levels near eight-month highs.
Export disruptions from Syria, Yemen and Sudan had contributed to higher prices.
“My problem is I can’t see what will bring it down ... I just can’t see enough pressure points to the downside,” Taylor said.
He estimated that Iran needed to find a home for about 500,000 barrels per day displaced from European buyers.
He said he expected backwardation in the oil market, a structure indicative of tight supplies where spot prices trade at a premium to forward values, is set to endure.
“You’ve got some producer selling at the back and not so much consumer buying. There tends to be more traffic on the sell-side on the far out (contracts) rather than the buy side,” he said.
Meanwhile, China, India and Japan are planning cuts of at least 10 percent in Iranian crude imports as tightening US sanctions make it difficult for the top Asian buyers to keep doing business with the OPEC producer.
The countries together buy about 45 percent of Iran’s crude exports. The reductions are the first significant evidence of how much crude business Iran could lose in Asia this year as Washington tries to tighten a financial noose around Tehran.
The cuts would add to a European Union ban on Iran oil imports, which comes into effect on July 1, to restrict the flow of vital foreign exchange to Tehran under pressure over its nuclear programme.
Japan is close to an agreement with Washington on the size of cuts needed to win waivers from the US sanctions, two ministers said. The Yomiuri newspaper, citing unidentified sources, said the two sides would settle on an 11 percent cut.
The Indian government is pushing its refineries to cut imports by at least 10 percent, two sources said. India has said it will not abide by US unilateral sanctions, so its response could indicate the increasing uncertainty of doing business with Iran.
China’s Unipec, the trading arms of Sinopec Corp, is likely to cut imports by 10 percent to 20 percent under 2012 supply contracts, a Chinese industry executive with direct knowledge of the deal said.
China had already cut back sharply on Iran crude purchases in the first quarter of 2012 while it haggled over full-year supplies contracts. Taking those cuts and planned purchases by China’s only other major importer — Zhuhai Zhenrong Corp — into account, Reuters calculates China’s total cuts this year will amount to about 14 percent.
In a further blow to Tehran, East Asian purchases of Iranian fuel oil is set to slump to a six-month low in March, according to comments from Singapore-based oil traders and an examination of shipping reports.
US financial sanctions imposed since the beginning of this year are playing havoc with Iran’s ability to buy imports and receive payment for its oil exports. Washington is pushing ahead with the sanctions because it fears Iran might use its nuclear programme to develop nuclear weapons.
The European Union has imposed an oil imports embargo on Iran. In response, Tehran ordered a halt of oil sales to Britain and France.
Iran, the biggest producer in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries after Saudi Arabia, denies Western suspicions that its nuclear programme has military goals, saying it is for purely peaceful purposes.
For Japan, avoiding US sanctions is essential to protect its financial sector’s operations abroad, but cutting oil imports could pose a risk to its struggling economy.
Japan’s reliance on oil imports has grown since a 2011 earthquake and tsunami triggered the Fukushima radiation crisis, leading to the shut down of most nuclear power reactors.
“We are closely negotiating with the United States and are moving forward towards mutual understanding, but it is not the case that we have reached a conclusion,” Trade Minister Yukio Edano told reporters. His comments were echoed by Foreign Minister Koichiro Gemba.