WASHINGTON, Jan 31, (Agencies): Iran is keeping the option open to develop a nuclear weapon but US intelligence agencies do not know whether it will eventually decided to build one, the US intelligence chief said on Tuesday.
New US sanctions imposed over Iran’s nuclear program were likely to have a greater impact than previous ones, but were not expected to lead to the downfall of Tehran’s leadership, Director of National Intelligence James Clapper said in prepared testimony on the annual worldwide threat assessment for the Senate intelligence committee.
“We assess Iran is keeping open the option to develop nuclear weapons, in part by developing various nuclear capabilities that better position it to produce such weapons, should it choose to do so,” Clapper said. “We do not know, however, if Iran will eventually decide to build nuclear weapons.”
Iran is expanding its uranium enrichment capabilities, which can be used for either civil or weapons purposes, he said.
“Iran’s technical advancement, particularly in uranium enrichment, strengthens our assessment that Iran has the scientific, technical, and industrial capacity to eventually produce nuclear weapons, making the central issue its political will to do so,” Clapper said.
“These advancements contribute to our judgment that Iran is technically capable of producing enough highly enriched uranium for a weapon, if it so chooses,” he said.
President Barack Obama signed into law Dec 31 sanctions on Iran’s central bank. The new US sanctions will have a greater impact on Iran because the Central Bank of Iran handles a large volume of foreign bank transactions and receives the revenue for the roughly 70 percent of Iranian oil sold by the National Iranian Oil Company, Clapper said.
“Despite this, Iran’s economic difficulties probably will not jeopardize the regime, absent a sudden and sustained fall in oil prices or a sudden domestic crisis that disrupts oil exports,” he said.
Iran has sought to “exploit the Arab Spring but has reaped limited benefits, thus far,” the testimony said. Its biggest regional concern is Syria where a change in leadership would be a major strategic loss for Tehran.
Nearly a year into the unrest, the situation in Syria is unlikely to be resolved quickly, Clapper said.
“Both the regime and the opposition are determined to prevail, and neither side appears willing to compromise on the key issue of President Bashar al-Assad remaining in power.”
The Arab Spring uprisings fueled concern among Chinese leaders that similar unrest could undermine their rule, prompting Beijing to launch its harshest crackdown on dissent in at least a decade, Clapper said.
At the same time, worries about the global economy helped heighten Beijing’s resistance to external pressure and suspicion of US intentions, he said.
China continued a policy of permitting modest appreciation of the renminbi, “although it remains substantially undervalued,” the testimony said.
In North Korea, it is still early to assess the extent of the new leader, Kim Jong-un’s authority, Clapper said. Senior North Korean leaders will probably remain cohesive at least in the near term to prevent instability and protect their interests, the testimony said.
US intelligence agencies judge that North Korea tested two nuclear devices, in October 2006 and May 2009, which “strengthen our assessment that North Korea has produced nuclear weapons,” Clapper said.
“The Intelligence Community assesses Pyongyang views its nuclear capabilities as intended for deterrence, international prestige, and coercive diplomacy. We judge that North Korea would consider using nuclear weapons only under narrow circumstances,” he said.
Espionage by China, Russia, and Iran will remain top threats to the United States in coming years, Clapper said. Russia and China are aggressive and successful in economic espionage against the United States, and “Iran’s intelligence operations against the United States, including cyber capabilities, have dramatically increased in recent years in depth and complexity.”
Foreign intelligence services have targeted the unclassified and classified computer networks of US government agencies, businesses, and universities. “We assess that many intrusions into US networks are not being detected,” he said.
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WASHINGTON: Al-Qaeda is in decline around the world but remains a leading threat to the United States, joined by others like Iran, the top US intelligence official said Tuesday in an annual report to Congress on threats facing America.
Iran’s leaders seem prepared to attack US interests overseas, particularly if they feel threatened by possible US action, Director of National Intelligence Jim Clapper told the Senate Intelligence Committee.
But Clapper, CIA chief David Petraeus and others reasserted their position that Iran is not building nuclear weapons, in contrast to Israeli officials’ statements that Iran could have nuclear capability within a year. Petraeus said he met with the head of Israel’s intelligence agency, Mossad, last week to discuss Israel’s concerns, but he did not say whether Israel agreed with the US assessment that Iran had not yet decided to make a nuclear weapon.
Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak said last week that Iran is proceeding toward nuclear weapons capability and time is “urgently running out.”
Al-Qaeda and Iran are part of a mosaic of interconnected enemies the US faces, including terrorists, criminals and foreign powers, who may try to strike via nuclear weapons or cyberspace, Clapper and the others said.
Al-Qaeda still aspires to strike the US, but it probably will have to go for “smaller, simpler attacks” as its ranks are thinned by continued pressure from US drone strikes and special operations raids since Osama bin Laden’s death at the hands of Navy SEALs in Pakistan last year, Clapper predicted.
“When you take one two and three out in a single year,” that weakens the force, added Petraeus. The CIA chief pointed out that “four of the top 20 in a single week were captured or killed,” last year, leaving the leadership struggling to replace itself.
The intelligence chiefs predicted al-Qaida’s regional affiliates will try to pick up the slack for the beleaguered core group in Pakistan, from the Yemeni offshoot al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula to Somalia’s al-Shabab. If they cannot reach the US homeland, they will try to attack Western targets in their geographic areas, the witnesses said, and the Yemeni branch of al-Qaeda remains the most likely affiliate to try to attack the US mainland.
The US continues to put pressure on the Yemeni offshoot, and on Monday mounted airstrikes targeting al-Qaeda leaders there, killing at least four suspected militants, according to Yemeni and military officials.
US officials also said there has been no decision whether to trade five Taleban prisoners now being held in Guantanamo, Cuba, as part of nascent peace talks with the Taleban.
Clapper said the White House would first have to determine where they would be held, and how they would be watched after being released to make sure they did not return to militancy.
Republican Sen. Saxby Chambliss said the five men the Taleban have named are considered too dangerous to be released by US counterterrorist authorities, but Petraeus said his agency had run several possible scenarios to figure out how best to free them.
Just below al-Qaeda on the list of threats comes the possibility of proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, from chemical and biological, to nuclear and radiological. The intelligence community does not believe states that possess them have supplied them to terror groups, but that remains a risk.
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Officials are quietly conceding that new international sanctions targeting Iran’s suspect nuclear program, while welcome, are further constraining Israel’s ability to take military action - just as a window of opportunity is closing because Tehran is moving more of its installations underground.
The officials say that Israel must act by the summer if it wants to effectively attack Iran’s program.
A key question in the debate is how much damage Israel, or anyone else, can inflict, and whether it would be worth the risk of a possible counterstrike.
Israel has been a leading voice in the international calls to curb Iran’s nuclear program. Like the West, it believes the Iranians are moving toward nuclear weapons capability - a charge Tehran denies.
Israel contends a nuclear-armed Iran would threaten its survival, citing Tehran’s calls for the destruction of the Jewish state and its support for anti-Israel militant groups. It also fears an Iranian bomb would touch off a nuclear arms race in a region still largely hostile to Israel.
Israeli leaders say they prefer a diplomatic solution. But - skeptical of international resolve - Israel refuses to rule out the use of force, saying frequently that “all options are on the table.”
In comments Friday to the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak called for even tougher sanctions against Iran and said time was running out for the world to act.
“We are determined to prevent Iran from turning nuclear,” he said. “It seems to us to be urgent, because the Iranians are deliberately drifting into what we call an immunity zone where practically no surgical operation could block them.”
Returning Monday to Israel, Barak added: “We must not waste time on this matter; the Iranians continue to advance (toward nuclear weapons), identifying every crack and squeezing through. Time is urgently running out.”
Key Israeli defense officials believe that the time to strike, if such a decision is made, would have to be by the middle of this year.
Complicating the task is the assessment that Iran is stepping up efforts to move its work on enriching uranium - a critical component of bombmaking - deep underground. Iran’s enrichment site at Fordo near the Iranian city of Qom, for instance, is shielded by about 300 feet (90 meters) of rock.
A team of UN nuclear inspectors, including senior weapons experts, is in Iran this week, and the findings from the visit could greatly influence Western efforts to expand economic pressures on Tehran over its uranium enrichment.
The European Union this month decided to stop importing oil from Iran - just weeks after the US approved, but has yet to enact, new sanctions targeting Iran’s Central Bank and, by extension, its ability to sell its oil.
Several officials at the heart of the decision-making structure, speaking on condition of anonymity because they were discussing some of Israel’s deepest secrets, said they feel compelled to give the sanctions time.
In this way, somewhat paradoxically, the new economic sanctions the US and Europe are imposing - while meeting a repeated Israeli request - have emerged as an obstacle to military action.
An Israeli strike would risk shattering the US-led diplomatic front that has imposed four additional rounds of sanctions on Iran and jolt the shaky world economy by causing oil prices to spike. Still, officials say, if Israel feels no alternative but to take military action, it will do so.
Israel possesses dozens of F-16s and F-15s, some customized with long-range fuel tanks, and has bought additional Dolphin submarines from Germany capable of firing nuclear missiles.