TEHRAN, Jan 10, (Agencies): Iran’s showdown with the West slid closer to dangerous confrontation on Tuesday as international alarm over a new uranium enrichment plant and Tehran’s death sentence for a “CIA spy” raised the stakes.
Both sides were digging in, with Iran’s defiance hardening and the United States and European Union actively taking steps to fracture the Iranian economy through further sanctions.
China, which rejects sanctions, warned of disastrous consequences if the Iranian nuclear row escalated into conflict, while Japan said it was “very concerned.”
The IAEA’s confirmation on Monday that Iran had begun enriching uranium in a new, underground bunker southwest of Tehran was seized upon by the United States, Britain, France and Germany as an unacceptable “violation” of UN Security Council resolutions.
But Iran’s envoy to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Ali Asghar Soltanieh, on Tuesday shot back that the stance was “politically motivated”.
The underground Fordo plant had been revealed two years ago and documented, he said. The 20-percent enriched uranium it was to produce would be used for “peaceful and humanitarian” purposes, namely isotopes for cancer treatment, he said.
Both Solatanieh and the IAEA stressed that the UN nuclear watchdog had 24-hour cameras there and inspectors to keep it under watch.
That seemed unlikely to reassure the United States, though, or its chief Middle East ally, Israel, analysts said.
“Israel, which has already warned Iran that it could take military action against installations, is very, very worried by this facility ... We are moving into dangerous territory,” said Mark Hibbs of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
But while Iran downplayed the significance of Fordo — and affirmed it was ready to resume nuclear talks with world powers that collapsed a year ago — it continues to send tough signals to its longtime foe, the United States.
On Monday, a Revolutionary Court in Tehran sentenced an American former Marine, Amir Mirzai Hekmati, to death after convicting him of being a CIA spy.
Iran, which last month put on display what it said was a CIA reconnaissance drone it claimed to have captured through cyberwarfare, has also been stepping up military exercises in a show of strength.
Its elite Revolutionary Guards have said they are about to launch new navy manoeuvres in the Strait of Hormuz, at the entrance of the Gulf.
The navy drills are aimed at showing Iran can close the Strait of Hormuz, as political and military officials have warned, if the Islamic republic’s oil exports are blocked or severely curtailed.
China, which buys 20-22 percent of Iran’s crude oil, warned on Tuesday against conflict.
“We urge all relevant nations to ... refrain from taking actions that will intensify the situation and make common efforts to prevent war,” Chen Xiaodong, a top Chinese diplomat on Middle East affairs said in an online interview with his country’s state press.
“Once war starts in this region not only will the relevant nations be affected and attacked, it would also ... bring disaster to a world economy deep in crisis,” he said.
The United States has said closing the strait would be a “red line” and it will continue deploying its warships to the Gulf.
Oil prices stayed high on the threats and counter-threats, amid buoyant US consumer data. West Texas Intermediate crude was over $102 a barrel while Brent North Sea crude was over $113.
US President Barack Obama signed into law on New Year’s Eve sanctions against Iran’s central bank due to come into effect within months.
His Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner was in Beijing on Tuesday in an effort to get China to drop its steadfast opposition to new sanctions on Iran and to come on board, at least to some extent.
Japan’s foreign minister, on a Gulf tour to seek assurances over oil supplies, also raised the alarm and called for a diplomatic solution. His country buys about 14 percent of Iran’s crude.
“Japan is very concerned about the latest developments,” Koichiro Gemba said. “We believe that we should solve the problem diplomatically and peacefully. That is why dialogue with Iran should continue.”
The European Union, meanwhile, is poised to declare a ban on Iranian oil imports.
A foreign ministers’ meeting on the issue scheduled for the end of this month has been brought forward a week, to Jan 23, an EU official in Brussels told AFP.
Iran depends on oil sales for 60 percent of its government revenues and last year, it earned around $100 billion from petroleum exports. Existing sanctions have complicated payment, though.
Signs of strains on Iran’s economy could be seen in the value of its currency, the rial, which has plummeted around one-third in the past three months.
On Tuesday, mobile phone text messages containing the word “dollar” were being blocked in Iran. A website that shows the rial’s value against world currencies was also inaccessible.
Preparing
Meanwhile, Israel is preparing for Iran to become a nuclear power and has accepted it may happen within a year, the London Times reported on Monday citing an Israeli security report.
The Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) think-tank prepared scenarios for the day after an Iranian nuclear weapons test at the request of former Israeli ambassadors, intelligence officials and ex-military chiefs, the paper reported.
Israel has so far maintained it will do all within its power to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear capabilities, but has shifted its position following recent United Nations’ reports, according to the Times.
INSS specialists including a former head of Israel’s National Security Council and two former members of the prime minister’s office conducted the simulation study in Tel Aviv last week.
If Iran does test a nuclear weapon, INSS predicts a profound shift in the Middle East power balance.
According to extracts of the report seen by the British publication, experts believe the US would propose a defence pact with Israel, but would urge it not to retaliate.
Russia would seek an alliance with the US to prevent nuclear proliferation in the region, although Saudi Arabia would likely pursue its own nuclear programme, the report concluded based on current policies.
INSS specialists believe that an Iranian test in January 2013 would follow increasingly provocative demands by President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s regime, including the redrawing of its Iraqi borders and action against the vessels of the US Fifth Fleet.
“The simulation showed that Iran will not forgo nuclear weapons, but will attempt to use them to reach an agreement with the major powers that will improve its position,” said a passage of the report published by the Times.
“The simulation showed that (the Israeli military option), or the threat of using it, would also be relevant following an Iranian nuclear test,” it added.
Program
Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad defended his country’s nuclear program as he began a four-nation tour of Latin America, joining his ally Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez in accusing the US and its allies of using the dispute to unjustly threaten Iran.
Both leaders dismissed US concerns about Iran’s intentions in the Middle East and its growing diplomatic ties with Chavez and his allies in Latin America.
“They accuse us of being warmongers,” Chavez said. “They’re the threat.”
Both leaders planned to travel to Nicaragua on Tuesday for the inauguration of newly re-elected President Daniel Ortega, and then Ahmadinejad will also visit Cuba and Ecuador.
The Iranian leader is using the visit to tout relationships with some of his close friends shortly after the US imposed tougher sanctions on Iran over its nuclear program.
Chavez accused the US and its European allies of demonizing Iran and using false claims about the nuclear issue “like they used the excuse of weapons of mass destruction to do what they did in Iraq.”
Ahmadinejad dismissed the accusations about Iran’s nuclear program in general terms.
“They say we’re making (a) bomb,” the Iranian leader said through an interpreter. “Fortunately, the majority of Latin American countries are alert. Everyone knows that those words ... are a joke. It’s something to laugh at.”
“It’s clear they’re afraid of our development,” Ahmadinejad said.
Senior UN nuclear inspectors are expected to visit Iran “quite soon” to discuss their growing concerns about possible military aspects to its nuclear programme, an International Atomic Energy Agency official said on Tuesday.
Such a trip would come at a time of escalating tension over Iran’s nuclear ambitions with European nations preparing for a embargo on Iranian oil and Tehran threatening to retaliate by blocking Gulf oil shipping lanes vital to the global economy.
The Vienna-based UN nuclear watchdog and Iran “are working on the timing of a possible visit,” the agency official, who declined to be named, told Reuters.
The delegation would probably be headed by Herman Nackaerts, director of IAEA safeguards inspections worldwide. Lower-level inspectors regularly monitor Iran’s declared nuclear sites but their movements are otherwise restricted.
Iran’s latest overture to the UN agency, which has long urged Tehran to address disputes about its nuclear agenda, coincides with a toughening of Western sanctions imposed on Iran over its atomic activities.