Unemployment rate falls in half of US states last month US economy shows signs of health after slump

WASHINGTON, Oct 21, (AP): Unemployment rates fell in half of US states last month, a sign that September’s pickup in hiring was felt around the country.
The Labor Department says unemployment rates dropped in 25 states, rose in 14 and stayed the same in 11. That’s a modest improvement from August, when unemployment rose in 26 states.
Nationwide, employers added 103,000 net jobs in September, nearly double the number created in August. Still, that’s not enough to lower the unemployment rate, which stayed at 9.1 percent for the third straight month.
Nevada reported the highest unemployment rate for the 16th straight month. It stayed at 13.4 percent for the second consecutive month. California was next. The rate there fell from 12.1 in August to 11.9 percent. Michigan had the third-highest rate, at 11.1 percent.

Layoffs have slowed at a national level in recent months. The number of people applying for unemployment benefits has fallen to a six-month low, according to a four-week average calculated by the government. That has helped calm fears that the economy was sliding into another recession, as have other recent data.
Manufacturers in the Philadelphia region grew in October after contracting for two straight months, according to a survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. In September, consumers boosted their spending on retail goods by the most in seven months.
Still, the national unemployment rate has been stuck near 9 percent for more than two years. Employers have added an average of only 72,000 jobs per month in the past five months. That’s far below the 100,000 per month needed to keep up with population growth. And it’s down from an average of 180,000 in the first four months of this year.

Americans are pessimistic about the economy. And more than half say President Barack Obama does not inspire confidence about a recovery.
A sizable majority ‚Äî more than 7 in 10 ‚Äî believe the US is headed in the wrong direction, according to a new Associated Press-GfK poll. And 43 percent describe the nation’s economy as “very poor,” a new high. Among those surveyed, less than 40 percent say Obama’s proposed remedies for high unemployment would increase jobs significantly.
Employers pulled back on hiring this spring after seeing less demand from consumers. Higher food and gas prices forced consumers to rein in spending. Consumer spending accounts for 70 percent of economic activity.
Job growth is critical to a recovery in the housing market, which many economists say is years away.
The number of Americans who bought previously occupied homes fell in September to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.91 million homes, the National Association of Realtors said Thursday. The pace matches last year’s sales figures, which were the worst since 1997.

Economy
Meanwhile, the US economy appears slightly healthier than many had feared it was a few weeks ago, raising hopes that it can end the year on an upward slope.
A raft of data Thursday show layoffs are trending down to a six-month low and factories in the Mid-Atlantic are growing again after contracting for two months. Nevertheless, home sales fell and the housing market is expected weigh on the economy deep into 2012.
The outlook for the final six months of the year has improved from August, when many thought the economy was at growing risk of falling back into a recession. Other recent reports showed hiring picked up slightly in September and consumers boosted their spending on retail goods by the most since March.
Most economists now expect modest growth for the rest of this year. Still, they caution that it’s unlikely to be strong enough to significantly lower the unemployment rate, which has been stuck near 9 percent for more than two years. And a recession in Europe, which many now predict, could slow growth in 2012.
Macroeconomic Advisers forecasts the economy will expand at an annual rate of 2.7 percent in the July-September quarter, and 2.6 percent in the final three months of the year. The government issues its first estimate for third-quarter growth on October 27.
“A recession now looks a lot less likely, but economic growth is still going to be pretty weak,” said Paul Ashworth, an economist at Capital Economics.

Reports Thursday were mostly positive:

* The average number of people applying for unemployment benefits each week over the past four weeks fell to 403,000, the Labor Department said. That’s the lowest level for the four-week average since mid-April. A month ago, it was 422,250.

* Manufacturing grew in the Philadelphia region in October after contracting for two straight months, the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia said. The October reading was the best for the Philly Fed’s regional manufacturing index in six months.

* The Conference Board index of leading economic indicators rose 0.2 percent in September. It was the fifth consecutive gain for the index, although it was slightly weaker than increases in August and July.
The financial markets rose in morning trading after the Philly Fed report was released. They gave up most of their early gains after reports showed Europe is struggling to agree on a plan to address the region’s debt crisis. The Dow Jones industrial average closed up 37 points for the day.
Economists have been closely watching unemployment benefit applications since fears of another recession intensified this summer. Layoffs and applications tend to rise at the beginning of recessions.

“This decline in initial claims signals the potential for an improvement in the pace of job creation in October relative to recent months,” said John Ryding, an economist with RDQ Economics. “However, we are still waiting for that decisive move in claims below the 400,000 mark to send a stronger signal that payroll growth is running at a pace that will begin to make sustained inroads into unemployment.”
Job growth is critical to a housing recovery, which many economists say could be years away.
The number of Americans who bought previously occupied homes fell to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.91 million homes, the National Association of Realtors said. The pace matches last year’s sales figures, which were the worst since 1997.

Economists say home sales need to be closer to 6 million to be consistent with a healthy housing market.
“This is a significant barrier to recovery,” said Ian Shepherdson, chief US economists for High Frequency Economics.
Home sales are tumbling, even though mortgage rates are at record lows. This week, the average rate on the 30-year mortgage ticked down to 4.11 percent. Just two weeks ago, it fell below 4 percent for the first time ever.

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