IEA chief sees possible slide in global oil output Mideast fuel oil mkt strong, naphtha remains weak

TOKYO, June 18, (Agencies): Global oil output could slide by up to 900,000 barrels a day from projected levels for 2015 if oil producing countries follow the US lead and impose moratoriums on development of new offshore oil reserves, International Energy Agency executive director Nobuo Tanaka said Friday.
The Paris-based organisation is conducting research on the possible impact of the US moratorium and its implications worldwide, Tanaka said, Dow Jones Newswires reported.
“If other countries like Angola, Brazil and the North Sea (countries) put on hold new offshore development and there is also one or two years of delay, the impact on global oil output might be 800,000 barrels a day to 900,000 barrels a day by 2015,” Tanaka told Dow Jones.
He was speaking in the western Japanese city of Fukui, where he will take part in a meeting of Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation group energy ministers this weekend.

Although the decline would represent about one percent of global oil output, “given that spare oil production capacity is about six million barrels a day, (a drop of) roughly one million barrels a day can’t be ignored,” he said.
Oil and gas companies began shutting down 33 deepwater exploration rigs last month after US President Barack Obama imposed a six-month moratorium on developing new deepwater wells in the Gulf of Mexico.
“There is little near-term impact. But for the medium term, if new offshore oil development in the US is delayed by one or two years, the impact (on production) would be 100,000 barrels a day to 300,000 barrels a day by 2015,” Tanaka said.
“The ultimate impact is unclear. But it would take time to investigate the causes of the spill and develop appropriate safety requirements and procedures,” he said.
At the three-day APEC meeting, ministers and government officials will discuss energy security, sustainable development of energy resources and the adoption of renewable sources, Dow Jones said.

Also:
KHOBAR, Saudi Arabia: The Middle East fuel oil market was strong on continued supply tightness while the naphtha market remained weak, traders said on Thursday.
Sentiment in the fuel oil market was bolstered by concern that there may be a problem at Saudi Aramco’s joint venture refinery at Yanbu, traders said.
An outage there would come at a time of peak summer demand in the Gulf. Prices in the region are already outstripping those in Singapore. Fujairah bunker prices stayed $3.00-$5.00 a tonne above Singapore marine fuels for a third week.
Aramco sold a second lot of vacuum gas oil (VGO), totalling 250,000 barrels for June 23-25 loading from Yanbu, signalling that there could be an outage at one of its secondary units at the plant as the refinery usually processes VGO as feedstock in its hydrocracker.

The cargo was sold at a premium of $39.00 to 180-centistoke fuel oil Singapore spot quotes, on a free-on-board basis, to a Western trader, and probably headed west, traders said.
“Last month we had some issues with supplies...that kind of tightness is still there, it’s not like (there are) too many barrels in the region but they are balanced,” he said. “Prices are stable right now, bunkers and cargoes are fairly balanced, pretty much in tandem,” he added.
Naphtha stayed bearish amid weaker petrochemical margins in Asia. Kuwait Petroleum Corp (KPC) sold 24,000 tonnes of light naphtha for July 6-7 loading at a premium of $11.00-$12.00 a tonne to Middle East spot quotes on a free-on-board (FOB) basis.
That was down from a premium of $17.00-$19.00 previously.
“The (naphtha) market is low now, the market is in single-digit, spot is plenty, showing a lot for July loading,” said a trader. “Demand is not there and supply is plenty. I think it (demand) will remain the same, maybe for the next month or two.”

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