KUWAIT CITY, Feb 17: The situation between Iran and the West is increasingly deteriorating and the region as a whole is yet to face the full impact of the financial crises in 2010, says Claude Smadja, President of Smadja & Associates.
“With regards to Iran, the Obama administration has tried a policy of extending a hand towards the country. Right now they have a feeling that their extended hand has been ignored by the region from what I’ve heard from friends in the US. The Iranian regime is continuing its policy of building nuclear capabilities and so the US feels the need to toughen its position because time is running out,” he said, speaking on the sidelines of 7th annual Global Strategy Group Middle East conference (GSGME).
Smadja added that the impact of the global financial crises is still being felt very harshly in the region in many different ways. The banks in the region are suffering and international companies doing business been more restrictive in terms of investment and development which is creating a noticeable negative impact.
“Although there is a large inflow of revenue, it is much less than what we’ve seen in 2007. So in a way the impact of the crises is being felt much harshly than what was anticipated at the beginning of the crises,” said Smadja.
The GSGME is being held on Feb 17-18, and is organized by Jusoor Arabiya Leadership and Consultancy Center along with Smadja & Associates. The conference is bringing together a mix of top experts in the region and around the world to discuss the issues and challenges which are shaping the future of the Middle East region as well as how what is happening in the world is impacting the region and vice versa.

Sponsors
The sponsors of this year’s conference are Kharafi National and Safwan Petroleum Technologies. Experts and participants include Saifaldin Abdul-Rahman who is an advisor on International Relations as well as a Senior Aid for Tariq Al-Hashimi, the Vice-President of Iraq.
“The meeting has few very important elements in the agenda. 2010 is also a very important year with respect to Iraq and the emergence from the global recession. Is it over? Can we look at growth in the coming period? Is the crisis affecting positively or negatively the prospects of economic liberalization?” questioned Smadja.
Smadja added that Iraq is being shaped by two very important events - the departure this summer of US combat troops and the forthcoming governmental election.
“It is timely to assess how Iraq, a central country in the region, will turn the page after the war and the American presence and the building of its governance structure. In a way we see this as a beginning of the stabilization and normalization process the will maybe open new opportunities in oil production and the oil industry. This has very important implications looking three to five years down the road,” explained Smadja.
Dr Shafeeq Ghabra, President of Jusoor Arabiya said that this year’s experts are meeting under exceptional circumstances in the region, including the future of Yemen. “We will also discuss Egypt - what is next in Egypt? Where are we moving? What will happen after 2010? If President Mubarak passes away, what is next in Egypt?” he said.
Iran as well is one of the subjects being discussed in the conference. Pressure from the countries of Europe, the US even Russia is increasingly growing with respect to Iran’s nuclear plans. At the same time, there is domestic unrest where the regime is constantly domestically under pressure. The experts want to assess how these two elements combine this year in Iran and how they combine with respect to stability in the region.

Disaster
“It is a disaster for all sides if the US attacks Iran - for the region, Iran, the US, for the oil industry. This war will never end because it is not just the attack itself it is what happens the day after, the week after, the month after and the year after. I think it won’t be easy at all and it will further radicalize this part of the world as if we need more of that. It will also kill the reform movement in Iran,” Dr Ghabra said.
He added that Iran in turn may attack the Gulf because any situation cannot be ruled out in this case. “Iran will do everything possible to create another international crisis if attacked,” he said.
Dr Ghabra said that Shiite terrorism will in turn rise to be equal to Sunni terrorism creating further anarchy around the world through a Shiite version of al-Qaeda. “The situation is too complicated and we can’t be resorting to sanctions and violence when there is something we don’t like,” he stated.
According to Smadja, we are getting close to a “moment of truth” in this situation in the coming two months where either a set of sanctions will be imposed on Iran or the Iranian regime will accept that there is a need to change their nuclear program policies - not to abandon their plans for development but to accept the proposed measures by the US.

 “We are one full year after the start of the Obama administration which started with big expectations in improving the relations with the Islamic world, in creating stability and progress in the Arab/Israeli conflict, in creating another image and momentum in the relationship with the Arab world and the US” said Smadja.
These expectations have not materialized yet, says Smadja, so where does the region stand during this new administration? Should the countries in the region still expect a lot from it or should we mellow these kinds of hopes and expectations? Is time running out to address the Arab/Israeli conflict?
After the meeting a very intensive executive summary of the discussions and the outcomes is written, produced and distributed to all participants and other companies and public personalities.
“The summary can be useful in terms of questions, issues and recommendations to help address the challenges that the region is facing,” concluded Smadja.